Watching people pull their pud over some NAIA (Or D3, not that it makes a difference) WR with a great 40 time got me to thinking. How many of these guys end up doing well?
I looked at combine 40 times from 2006 to 2018 at RB and WR to see who had the best. I cut it off at 2018 as we do not have really know if the most recent guys will be good or not. And here is what we have:
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Well, :cj: was good, for 3 years. Ross was a bust. Goodwin looked like a bust until he got to SF, and has been good. Nelson was okay for a couple years.
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Will Fuller is great when healthy. Darius Hyphen-Bey was a bust who lingered as a backup/ST guy for years. Samuel seems pretty good. A lot of "Who the F is that?" in there.
The remaining two are Brandin Cooks (Great player...... on his third team) and Philip Dorset (who who has lingered as a backup).
**Mind you, all of these guys were good enough prospects to get a combine invite. Something Kevin Byard did not even get.
NFL Events: Combine Top Performers
I looked at combine 40 times from 2006 to 2018 at RB and WR to see who had the best. I cut it off at 2018 as we do not have really know if the most recent guys will be good or not. And here is what we have:
View attachment 17469
Well, :cj: was good, for 3 years. Ross was a bust. Goodwin looked like a bust until he got to SF, and has been good. Nelson was okay for a couple years.
View attachment 17470
Will Fuller is great when healthy. Darius Hyphen-Bey was a bust who lingered as a backup/ST guy for years. Samuel seems pretty good. A lot of "Who the F is that?" in there.
The remaining two are Brandin Cooks (Great player...... on his third team) and Philip Dorset (who who has lingered as a backup).
**Mind you, all of these guys were good enough prospects to get a combine invite. Something Kevin Byard did not even get.
NFL Events: Combine Top Performers
I hate that a 40 time, ran in shorts, seems to be the #1 stat so many look at in evaluating talent. It' ain't track and field.
There are plenty of fast people that can't play football.
Plenty of slower players that are great football players.
Plenty of slower players that are great football players.
I’m not gonna lie, I do look at 40 times. I’m sure we all dk. We get impressed when a good players clocks a good time and discouraged when a good players is slow. That said, it clearly doesn’t equate to success. My best example is Anquan Boldin.
Would a 6 foot, 215 pound, WR running a 4.7 be drafted today?
Would a 6 foot, 215 pound, WR running a 4.7 be drafted today?
Dayum I forgot all about Chad Jackson. What a bust he turned out to be..
Tommie Campbell is another example.
Tommie Campbell is another example.
If the rest of the body of work isn’t there, why not?
Most of these guys are all running within about .2 of a second to each other. Outside a straight deep route with a perfect throw by the QB, I just don’t see that to be enough to consider 40 times over all else.
Agility and ability to change direction is far more important for pretty much every position on the field than straight line speed.
You see this all the time too. LB A runs a 4.7. LB B runs a 4.5. But LB A diagnoses plays and reacts faster than LB B, thus completely negating the difference in speed.
You see this all the time too. LB A runs a 4.7. LB B runs a 4.5. But LB A diagnoses plays and reacts faster than LB B, thus completely negating the difference in speed.
Nothing earth shattering or eye popping:
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He's one of my all time favorites, but sadly, most fans today would be pissed if this guy was drafted any earlier that the 5th. People would probably complain in the 7th because XYZ who ran a 4.37 was still available! WTF were we thinking??
Gotta trust the guys that teams value enough to pay to do this for a living. Although, they can get it wrong too.
Athletic profile overall is more of a check box. If a guy is a good size, and can run all the timed measurables in a similar time to his peers at his position, then he's a good athlete and you can go back to watching tape on him to figure out how he plays the game.
If a guy is significantly outside the bell curve for his peers, good or bad, you'll probably want to take a second look at him to either figure out why he wasn't better in college, or figure out if there's something else attributing to his success.
If a guy is significantly outside the bell curve for his peers, good or bad, you'll probably want to take a second look at him to either figure out why he wasn't better in college, or figure out if there's something else attributing to his success.
I think in general too much stock is put in the 40 times. Without an overall body of work to go with it, it doesn’t really have any value and like the example, just because you have a “slower” 40 time, doesn’t automatically mean NFL bust.
The only time I see it even coming to play is on a play where a dead sprint takes place, WR do it all the time but even then, they still have to navigate around a DB AND, if the QB is dead on accurate, the speed difference can be negated.
Not sure what player you are referring to in the original post. If it's Quez Watkins would played for SMU, I mean he has amazing tape and great measurables, so it isn't his 40 time is the only thing to look at here. I won't pull my hair out that we didn't draft him. WR isn't a huge need. But I did really want him as someone who can take the top off of defenses.
We were all ruined by CJ2K. When you see that, it changes everything. That was electric. We've never had, or likely will have, another player who could go the distance on every play like that. AJ Brown and Derrick Henry show glimpses, and that's a real good thing. Cause it's rare. But after that I can't really remember anyone else and that includes the entire Oilers history. Maybe White Shoes.
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