Every coach to some extent uses it and/or the assistants have the information ready....
I really would like to see the analytics on this scenario, which Downing has been trending...
1st down -- Derrick Henry 7 yard run around LT --- Holding, LG.... 10 yard penalty.
(the down is now 1st and 20 since the hold took place right at the LOS)
1st down (20) -- Draw play to Dontrell Hilliard..... 2 yard gain........ you're now on 2nd & 18.
I'm sorry, but if you get 1st and 20 - you need to cut your losses and pass -- because if your 'idea' is to run the ball 1-2 plays, your odds of punting sky rockets anyway...
There's gotta be somewhere you can review the success rate of draw plays on 1st and 20 vs punting plays on a sequence of 1st and 20.
I really would like to see the analytics on this scenario, which Downing has been trending...
1st down -- Derrick Henry 7 yard run around LT --- Holding, LG.... 10 yard penalty.
(the down is now 1st and 20 since the hold took place right at the LOS)
1st down (20) -- Draw play to Dontrell Hilliard..... 2 yard gain........ you're now on 2nd & 18.
I'm sorry, but if you get 1st and 20 - you need to cut your losses and pass -- because if your 'idea' is to run the ball 1-2 plays, your odds of punting sky rockets anyway...
There's gotta be somewhere you can review the success rate of draw plays on 1st and 20 vs punting plays on a sequence of 1st and 20.
pass under LBs to get back to second and 10ish seems to usually work against Titans
Seems like it happens 9/10 drives or anytime there’s a decent run offense goes backwards
Per the Norm when playing against the K.C. Refs
It's called Prevent Offence, and Downing is revolutionising football with it.
Rely on your Punter and Defence to flip the field, so that your kicker can come out and add 3 pts, while your offence takes 2 minutes off the clock, but importantly gives up zero turnovers while going 3 and out.
Rely on your Punter and Defence to flip the field, so that your kicker can come out and add 3 pts, while your offence takes 2 minutes off the clock, but importantly gives up zero turnovers while going 3 and out.
Some models may actually favor running on 1st & 20 in that situation. Given the state of the titans offense (Willis+no separation at receiver), the likelihood of converting a first down at 1st & 20 is very low regardless of run or pass. Then when you factor in the higher likelihood of a turnover from passing, the win probability is actually probably higher to run in that situation.
Also our YPP were probably higher rushing the ball than it was passing at that point so almost certainly the analytics would say to run the ball.
Also our YPP were probably higher rushing the ball than it was passing at that point so almost certainly the analytics would say to run the ball.
I wasn't sure where to put this link.
https://titanswire.usatoday.com/202...-wide-receiver-struggles-offense-predictable/
https://titanswire.usatoday.com/202...-wide-receiver-struggles-offense-predictable/
This was as good a place as any, and was a good read.
Thanks for posting the link :toast:
While not the popular play... I'd guess that teams with a good RB probably run it on 1st and 20 a good bit of the time. And as for the Titans, Henry is the whole offense so it's highly likely. Try to bust a 10+ yard run and go from there.
Especially with our oline + Willis + practice squad receivers
my favorite is the 1d SAC that puts the O out of fatrandy range then the 2 low % deep shots instead of something under the LBs to get back into fatrandy range
I mean prevent offense defined
a normal team would face a 3 or 4 man rush with D playing back a bit... but vs Titans 1st & 20 is still an 8 man box cause ZERO ability to punish teams that do it
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