I mean, KC was at the 3 yd line on 3rd down. Missed Kelce in the corner on quick out… with this line of thinking, why not go for the win instead of tying the game? No difference from there than going for two in OT. Zero difference actually.The entire argument is not proven by any analytics.
The idea is that Mahomes is “so good” that you don’t want him to have the ball second so you know how much points you need, but if Mahomes gets the TD, which is presumably why they’re so scared to give him the ball second, then your offense must score a TD and either go for a 2 pt win or give the ball right back and now a Mahomes FG drive wins the game.
Ultimately it seems like the argument is no matter what, if you’re against Mahome at least, you go for a TD and 2 pt conversion, regardless of number of 4th downs and placement on the field or distance to go.
bottom line is that SF taking the ball wasn’t a mistake period. You can make an argument for either way, but neither was wrong.