I'm curious why McDonald has projected stats. Was Tannehill injured? Garbage time snaps in a blowout? If Tanny goes down and misses any kind of significant time it'll be downright disastrous relying on Woodside or McDonald. There isn't much left pertaining to vets, guys like Blake Bortles, Trevor Siemian and Cody Kessler are pretty much it.
I think jonnu and aj brown are a little low. I think darryton could do a little better
Good if love to see darryton become that great receiving back. We've tried and failed so many times.
Yea because JR keeps thinking a receiving back has to look like a slot receiver, those small bodies in the NFL aint it. Get a full sized adult in that 2nd RB role. Evans fits the bill.
I think every training camp JR's been around for hes tried inserting some micro-sized RB into the roster until this one. Its never worked for us.
Goes back beyond JR's time here. Remember the McClusterfuck experiment?
I still think we need a pounder if Henry goes down somehow...:I’m much happier with Evans though!
Yea God forbid King Henry gets hurt
We ded
Evans will be an upgrade from baby dick Lewis, but we get so much from Henry its insane. And he really only plays about half the RB snaps... Which makes his productivity even more impressive.
Why i wanted dillon in the draft.
Im up and down on that kid. Evans has a good skillset, he can do pretty much everything.
Eventually, and pretty early IMO, Evans will take on the role of Lewis which will help throttle down DH's carries especially in the 1st half.
It is really hard to predict stats for WRs and TEs since we throw to everybody. I do think Tannehill can throw for 4000 yards if we have enough games. Thing is those yards will be scattered to a bunch of guys including Evans.
It is really hard to predict stats for WRs and TEs since we throw to everybody. I do think Tannehill can throw for 4000 yards if we have enough games. Thing is those yards will be scattered to a bunch of guys including Evans.
Henry played like 60% of the time. If anything ramp up his carries a little
The passing stats here aren't really that far off what we should expect, but I do challenge a few of them.
Here are his assumptions:
Ryan Tannehill
-7.8 yards/attempt (slightly better than any season he had before 2019)
-5.1% TD/attempt (better than any season prior to 2018)
-2.5% INT/attempt (about his career average)
-447 attempts (was on pace for ~450 in 2019)
My take:
He's giving RT the benefit that he'll be a better QB than he was in Miami, but nowhere close to as good as he was in 2019.
For comparison, his 2019 numbers were: 9.6 Y/A, 7.7 TD/A, and 2.0% INT/A. I don't think he'll necessarily be able to replicate that efficiency, but I'd put him closer to 8.0 Y/A, 6.0 TD/A, and 2.0 INT/A - which are very close to what Russell Wilson did last year.
I agree with his passing volume of 30 attempts/game, but he has RT missing a game. While that's certainly possible, it is for any player in the league, and I doubt he statted out Mahomes or Jackson missing any games.
Based on these assumptions, my projections are:
-3,840 passing yards
-29 TD's
-10 INT's
It's a regression in terms of efficiency last year, but I think he'll have a bit more volume.
Receiving:
After reviewing the targets from last year, allocating some of the missing ones to other players (ex. giving Delanie's to Jonnu), and moving some around, here's my top 5 receivers:
AJ Brown - 110 targets, 72 catches, 1296 yards, 10 TD's
Corey Davis - 72 targets, 45 catches, 680 yards, 4 TD's
Jonnu Smith - 75 targets, 53 catches, 656 yards, 5 TD's
Adam Humphries - 72 targets, 58 catches, 580 yards, 4 TD's
Derrick Henry - 30 targets, 23 catches, 180 yards, 2 TD's
That leaves 448 yards and 4 TD's to be divided amongst the rest of the receiving options.
Obviously it won't come out like that. Guys will get hurt, and other players will eat into some of these stats based on them filling in, but it still gives you a better idea of what we should expect than what this guy wrote up.
EDIT: Adjusted AJB’s yardage down some. I don’t see him producing another 20 y/c season. Moved him to 18 y/c. That left about 450 yards for other players.
Could see Evans and Firkser getting about 200 each at least, with Firk possibly stealing targets from Humphries.
EDIT 2: I’m an idiot and didn’t count where he had the RB’s getting the other 500 yards of receiving, so removed that rant. Even still, I disagree with his allocation and feel he shorted AJB and Jonnu significantly.
Here are his assumptions:
Ryan Tannehill
-7.8 yards/attempt (slightly better than any season he had before 2019)
-5.1% TD/attempt (better than any season prior to 2018)
-2.5% INT/attempt (about his career average)
-447 attempts (was on pace for ~450 in 2019)
My take:
He's giving RT the benefit that he'll be a better QB than he was in Miami, but nowhere close to as good as he was in 2019.
For comparison, his 2019 numbers were: 9.6 Y/A, 7.7 TD/A, and 2.0% INT/A. I don't think he'll necessarily be able to replicate that efficiency, but I'd put him closer to 8.0 Y/A, 6.0 TD/A, and 2.0 INT/A - which are very close to what Russell Wilson did last year.
I agree with his passing volume of 30 attempts/game, but he has RT missing a game. While that's certainly possible, it is for any player in the league, and I doubt he statted out Mahomes or Jackson missing any games.
Based on these assumptions, my projections are:
-3,840 passing yards
-29 TD's
-10 INT's
It's a regression in terms of efficiency last year, but I think he'll have a bit more volume.
Receiving:
After reviewing the targets from last year, allocating some of the missing ones to other players (ex. giving Delanie's to Jonnu), and moving some around, here's my top 5 receivers:
AJ Brown - 110 targets, 72 catches, 1296 yards, 10 TD's
Corey Davis - 72 targets, 45 catches, 680 yards, 4 TD's
Jonnu Smith - 75 targets, 53 catches, 656 yards, 5 TD's
Adam Humphries - 72 targets, 58 catches, 580 yards, 4 TD's
Derrick Henry - 30 targets, 23 catches, 180 yards, 2 TD's
That leaves 448 yards and 4 TD's to be divided amongst the rest of the receiving options.
Obviously it won't come out like that. Guys will get hurt, and other players will eat into some of these stats based on them filling in, but it still gives you a better idea of what we should expect than what this guy wrote up.
EDIT: Adjusted AJB’s yardage down some. I don’t see him producing another 20 y/c season. Moved him to 18 y/c. That left about 450 yards for other players.
Could see Evans and Firkser getting about 200 each at least, with Firk possibly stealing targets from Humphries.
EDIT 2: I’m an idiot and didn’t count where he had the RB’s getting the other 500 yards of receiving, so removed that rant. Even still, I disagree with his allocation and feel he shorted AJB and Jonnu significantly.
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