It's no secret this is our weak link and might be the piece that keeps us from making a deep run. I look at some advanced stats to try and figure out what the real issue is.
Kevin Byard was the first guy I looked at. He has been very quiet this year and hasn't been the playmaker he was when we signed him to the big deal.
Byard's missed tackle % has spiked from 2.3% last year (2 missed tackles all year) to 13.5% this year. He's already missed 5 tackles this season. He's also been targeted 16 times allowing 11 catches for 98 yards and a TD. Passer rating of 105.7. Now with no INT's the passer rating is going to be higher and most of Byard's picks come off of errant throws or tipped passes (which is the same for most safeties). However, in 2018 Byard allowed around 50% of the passes throw his way to be completed. This year it's at 68%. The INT's will probably come, but Byard has got to be better at tackling and in coverage.
Kenny Vaccaro has also had his struggles tackling this year. He has already missed more tackles this season (6) than he missed in both 2018 & 2019 (4 both years). Missed tackle % is 13.6% this season (4.5% last year). Coverage really hasn't changed much for him. He allowed around 70% completion last year and it is the same this year (note it was 53% in 2018 though). 114.7 passer rating allowed last season and 125.4 this year so far (79.9 in 2018). 20 targets 14 catches for 152 yards and 2 TD's 0 INT's.
Malcom Butler is actually off to his best start as a Titan so far, but that's in large part to the 2 INT game vs the Bill's. Completion % is down from 63% last year to 60% this year. Passer rating allowed is 79.4 which is way down from 91.3 last year and 101.4 in 2018. Butler is also the 2nd most targeted player in the NFL and the Titans have already had their bye week. Butler has allowed 31 catches on 51 targets for 366 yards 2 TD's and 2 INT's.
Jonathon Joseph is actually having a decent season allowing under 50% completion and a 94.7 passer rating. However, he has been susceptible to giving up bigger gains giving up over 16 yards per completion. 31 targets allowing 15 catches for 249 yards 3 TD's and 1 INT.
Fulton has a small sample size but he has been meh so far. But limited offseason and covid, plus injuries have probably hurt his progression a bit this year. 14 targets allowing 10 catches for 134 yards 1 TD and 1 INT. However, he has missed 16.7% of his tackles.
Not gonna spend much time on Chris Jackson or Tye Smith. It's been bad. Jackson has allowed 16 catches on 20 targets (80%) for 154 yards 1 TD. Tye has limited action as well but it's been ugly. 11 targets 9 catches (81%) for 91 yards 2 TD's.
Rashaan Evans has actually been our best LB to this point. Not only does he have 1 missed tackle so far this year (2.8% missed tackle % down from 13.3 last year), but he is allowing a 76.8 passer rating against so far this year. He's been targeted 13 times allowing 8 catches (61.5%) for 73 yards and 0 TD's. Last year Evans gave up a 86.7% completion and a 112.5 passer rating.
Jayon has been another regression candidate. Last year after he posted 77.1 passer rating against (67.1 in 2018) he's all the way up to 94.1 this year. He didn't allow a single TD in 2018 or 2019 and this year he's already allowed 2. His missed tackle percentage (8.5%) is up slightly from last year (5.4%) but still lower than it was in 2018 (9.3%) so nothing to be overly worried about.
I'll make another post breaking down our pass rusher and defensive line later today.
Kevin Byard was the first guy I looked at. He has been very quiet this year and hasn't been the playmaker he was when we signed him to the big deal.
Byard's missed tackle % has spiked from 2.3% last year (2 missed tackles all year) to 13.5% this year. He's already missed 5 tackles this season. He's also been targeted 16 times allowing 11 catches for 98 yards and a TD. Passer rating of 105.7. Now with no INT's the passer rating is going to be higher and most of Byard's picks come off of errant throws or tipped passes (which is the same for most safeties). However, in 2018 Byard allowed around 50% of the passes throw his way to be completed. This year it's at 68%. The INT's will probably come, but Byard has got to be better at tackling and in coverage.
Kenny Vaccaro has also had his struggles tackling this year. He has already missed more tackles this season (6) than he missed in both 2018 & 2019 (4 both years). Missed tackle % is 13.6% this season (4.5% last year). Coverage really hasn't changed much for him. He allowed around 70% completion last year and it is the same this year (note it was 53% in 2018 though). 114.7 passer rating allowed last season and 125.4 this year so far (79.9 in 2018). 20 targets 14 catches for 152 yards and 2 TD's 0 INT's.
Malcom Butler is actually off to his best start as a Titan so far, but that's in large part to the 2 INT game vs the Bill's. Completion % is down from 63% last year to 60% this year. Passer rating allowed is 79.4 which is way down from 91.3 last year and 101.4 in 2018. Butler is also the 2nd most targeted player in the NFL and the Titans have already had their bye week. Butler has allowed 31 catches on 51 targets for 366 yards 2 TD's and 2 INT's.
Jonathon Joseph is actually having a decent season allowing under 50% completion and a 94.7 passer rating. However, he has been susceptible to giving up bigger gains giving up over 16 yards per completion. 31 targets allowing 15 catches for 249 yards 3 TD's and 1 INT.
Fulton has a small sample size but he has been meh so far. But limited offseason and covid, plus injuries have probably hurt his progression a bit this year. 14 targets allowing 10 catches for 134 yards 1 TD and 1 INT. However, he has missed 16.7% of his tackles.
Not gonna spend much time on Chris Jackson or Tye Smith. It's been bad. Jackson has allowed 16 catches on 20 targets (80%) for 154 yards 1 TD. Tye has limited action as well but it's been ugly. 11 targets 9 catches (81%) for 91 yards 2 TD's.
Rashaan Evans has actually been our best LB to this point. Not only does he have 1 missed tackle so far this year (2.8% missed tackle % down from 13.3 last year), but he is allowing a 76.8 passer rating against so far this year. He's been targeted 13 times allowing 8 catches (61.5%) for 73 yards and 0 TD's. Last year Evans gave up a 86.7% completion and a 112.5 passer rating.
Jayon has been another regression candidate. Last year after he posted 77.1 passer rating against (67.1 in 2018) he's all the way up to 94.1 this year. He didn't allow a single TD in 2018 or 2019 and this year he's already allowed 2. His missed tackle percentage (8.5%) is up slightly from last year (5.4%) but still lower than it was in 2018 (9.3%) so nothing to be overly worried about.
I'll make another post breaking down our pass rusher and defensive line later today.
26th in QB pressures and press %.
28th in QB hurries and hurry %.
30th in sacks
- Clowney rarely holds the edge leading to big runs outside and also seems to give up on plays a lot.
- Can’t confirm if it’s Bowen or Vrabel making terrible defensive calls so I’ll say both are a problem (not to be confused with wanting to replace Vrabel as HC, just as DC micromanager)
- flat out injuries.
2020 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com
All said, that’s a pretty good breakdown of the individuals you posted.
28th in QB hurries and hurry %.
30th in sacks
- Clowney rarely holds the edge leading to big runs outside and also seems to give up on plays a lot.
- Can’t confirm if it’s Bowen or Vrabel making terrible defensive calls so I’ll say both are a problem (not to be confused with wanting to replace Vrabel as HC, just as DC micromanager)
- flat out injuries.
2020 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com
All said, that’s a pretty good breakdown of the individuals you posted.
For reference 2 CB's who have been talked about in trade rumors:
Stephon Gilmore: 30 targets allowing 16 catches (53.3%) 218 yards 1 TD and 1 INT a 74.0 passer rating allowed. Last year Gilmore did not allow a single TD on 101 targets.... allowed 51 catches (50.5%) 599 yards and 6 INT's a 44.1 passer rating allowed. Insane season!
Xavien Howard: is having a spectacular season so far this year 30 targets 14 catches allowed (46.7%) 248 yards 1 TD 4 INT's a 46.9 passer rating allowed. Last season he only played 5 games and wasn't nearly as effective. 117 passer rating allowed 65% completion percentage and 3 TD's and 1 INT. He was elite in 2018 with a 61.2 passer rating allowed but he only played 12 games.
Gilmore is most definitely atop my wish list and ironically he is cheaper as well. I doubt we make a deal for either though due to limited cap space.
Stephon Gilmore: 30 targets allowing 16 catches (53.3%) 218 yards 1 TD and 1 INT a 74.0 passer rating allowed. Last year Gilmore did not allow a single TD on 101 targets.... allowed 51 catches (50.5%) 599 yards and 6 INT's a 44.1 passer rating allowed. Insane season!
Xavien Howard: is having a spectacular season so far this year 30 targets 14 catches allowed (46.7%) 248 yards 1 TD 4 INT's a 46.9 passer rating allowed. Last season he only played 5 games and wasn't nearly as effective. 117 passer rating allowed 65% completion percentage and 3 TD's and 1 INT. He was elite in 2018 with a 61.2 passer rating allowed but he only played 12 games.
Gilmore is most definitely atop my wish list and ironically he is cheaper as well. I doubt we make a deal for either though due to limited cap space.
Last year Adoree Jackson posted this stat line:
54 targets 36 catches (66.7%) 395 yards 1 TD 0 INT 94.3 passer rating only 11 games played and 10 starts.
2018:
115 targets 65 catches (56.5%) 831 yards 6 TD's 2 INT's 89.4 passer rating allowed
Can't assume he is going to come in and fix the secondary by himself. Also considering he hasn't played a game all season I'm sure he will be rusty.
54 targets 36 catches (66.7%) 395 yards 1 TD 0 INT 94.3 passer rating only 11 games played and 10 starts.
2018:
115 targets 65 catches (56.5%) 831 yards 6 TD's 2 INT's 89.4 passer rating allowed
Can't assume he is going to come in and fix the secondary by himself. Also considering he hasn't played a game all season I'm sure he will be rusty.
Defensive line and pass rush:
It might be easy to look at the sack numbers and just assume all the Titans pass rushers suck, but that's why I'm doing this. Because looking at one stat isn't going to tell the whole story. So we know the secondary has been bad in coverage. How is that affecting the Titans pass rushers? Well they are tied for 30th in sacks and 30th in QB hurries.
However, the team does rank 6th in QB knockdown %. Which in my opinion is more important than just a hurry or a pressure. A knockdown means you were a half second away from a sack. Titans have a 10.5% QB knockdown percentage Ravens are #1 at 12.1% and Steelers are #2 at 11.9%. For reference the Titans were DEAD LAST in the category last year at 4.5%.
Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons both have 6 QB knockdowns on the year. That's tied for 5th in the league. Some of the guys they are tied with? Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Matt Judon, Cameron Heyward. Some pretty good company there. The league leaders (Grady Jarrett and William Gholston) are 8. Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner are at 7.
Clowney is at 5. Which is tied for 18th in the league. Myles Garrett also has 5.
But let's look at pressures and hurries too. The Titans rank 31st in hurry %.and 27th in pressure %.
Harold Landry is also tied with Judon and Aaron Donald in QB Hurries. In fact Landry is at least top 20 in all 3 categories: knockdowns, hurries, and pressures.
Simmons has 9 pressures to Clowney's 8. Landry is at 14.
So how are the Titans one of the top teams in QB knockdowns but one of the worst teams in applying pressure? Well for one they have to be really efficient when they do apply pressure. This means when they do get QB pressure/hurries they are getting the QB to the ground, but just after he's thrown the ball.
I think this can be correlated back to the bad coverage on in the secondary. Short quick throws are negating the Titans pressure numbers because it's hard to get pressure when the QB is throwing the ball in 2 seconds or less. If you go back and look at QB's pass logs vs us it's a lot of short to intermediate throws. Not much really deep down the field.
The sacks will come when the secondary can cover for a little bit longer. I certainly hope Adoree coming back will help things, and it should. But this should be something that makes JRob go get an elite corner that's available. It would really help push this team to the next level.
It might be easy to look at the sack numbers and just assume all the Titans pass rushers suck, but that's why I'm doing this. Because looking at one stat isn't going to tell the whole story. So we know the secondary has been bad in coverage. How is that affecting the Titans pass rushers? Well they are tied for 30th in sacks and 30th in QB hurries.
However, the team does rank 6th in QB knockdown %. Which in my opinion is more important than just a hurry or a pressure. A knockdown means you were a half second away from a sack. Titans have a 10.5% QB knockdown percentage Ravens are #1 at 12.1% and Steelers are #2 at 11.9%. For reference the Titans were DEAD LAST in the category last year at 4.5%.
Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons both have 6 QB knockdowns on the year. That's tied for 5th in the league. Some of the guys they are tied with? Aaron Donald, TJ Watt, Matt Judon, Cameron Heyward. Some pretty good company there. The league leaders (Grady Jarrett and William Gholston) are 8. Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner are at 7.
Clowney is at 5. Which is tied for 18th in the league. Myles Garrett also has 5.
But let's look at pressures and hurries too. The Titans rank 31st in hurry %.and 27th in pressure %.
Harold Landry is also tied with Judon and Aaron Donald in QB Hurries. In fact Landry is at least top 20 in all 3 categories: knockdowns, hurries, and pressures.
Simmons has 9 pressures to Clowney's 8. Landry is at 14.
So how are the Titans one of the top teams in QB knockdowns but one of the worst teams in applying pressure? Well for one they have to be really efficient when they do apply pressure. This means when they do get QB pressure/hurries they are getting the QB to the ground, but just after he's thrown the ball.
I think this can be correlated back to the bad coverage on in the secondary. Short quick throws are negating the Titans pressure numbers because it's hard to get pressure when the QB is throwing the ball in 2 seconds or less. If you go back and look at QB's pass logs vs us it's a lot of short to intermediate throws. Not much really deep down the field.
The sacks will come when the secondary can cover for a little bit longer. I certainly hope Adoree coming back will help things, and it should. But this should be something that makes JRob go get an elite corner that's available. It would really help push this team to the next level.
Absolutely moronic to not get a D coordinator.
Will probably be what kills our legit chance at a SuperBowl. The regression here is incredible.
Will probably be what kills our legit chance at a SuperBowl. The regression here is incredible.
Also safe to say that Kerry Coombs was vastly under-appreciated while here.
Along with Logan Ryan.
Ryan was slipping in ability, but he was QB of the secondary- and got dudes in the gym killing it during the offseason. That leadership can't be taught.
Along with Logan Ryan.
Ryan was slipping in ability, but he was QB of the secondary- and got dudes in the gym killing it during the offseason. That leadership can't be taught.
Coombs is a huge blow no doubt. I think our coaching quality on Defense is below last year. Pees and Coombs were not replaced with coaches on the same level (or at all).
I found these two stats:
Avg depth of the target WR against the Titans - 8.3 yards. 17th.
Yards in the air on completions against the titans D - 1029 good for 21st. They’ve given up a total of 1632 passing yards, good for 20th.
While scheme is not good, either it is underestimated and defenders are playing further off than suggested or the pass rush is not getting there or both.
A better pass rush helps mediocre defenders but with the injuries piling up, I don’t see Tennessee fielding mediocre CB currently. AJ25 needs to come back, hopefully not rusty.
I also didn’t get the signing of Tye Smith over Brock this season. I don’t think anyone saw Smith playing better than Brock except JRob.
Avg depth of the target WR against the Titans - 8.3 yards. 17th.
Yards in the air on completions against the titans D - 1029 good for 21st. They’ve given up a total of 1632 passing yards, good for 20th.
While scheme is not good, either it is underestimated and defenders are playing further off than suggested or the pass rush is not getting there or both.
A better pass rush helps mediocre defenders but with the injuries piling up, I don’t see Tennessee fielding mediocre CB currently. AJ25 needs to come back, hopefully not rusty.
I also didn’t get the signing of Tye Smith over Brock this season. I don’t think anyone saw Smith playing better than Brock except JRob.
First off you’re using total stats which don’t account for how many pass attempts a team has against them. Also doesn’t take into account #of games played because that’s not an even playing field yet.
Titans are bottom half in average depth per target according to the stat. So like I said teams are attacking us underneath.
I was mildly surprised we didn’t sign Brock too. He started slow, but finished much better. Not sure why GMs make the chores they do at times.
You’re reading that backwards, they are 17th as in only 15 teams have a higher avg depth target. Or 16 teams have a shorter avg depth.
The fact that it’s the average depth per target eliminates the difference in attempts against them.
If it matters, the titans have the 11th most att against them. 10/11 with more played an extra game.
Also, the titans playing 6 games vice teams playing 7 should put them well above the midway point in yards allowed through the air to their target. 11 teams better than them, played an extra game, the other 10 played the same amount.
This is the link
2020 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Edit: I reread your wording. Did you mean bottom half as in lower numbers or bottom half as in bottom half of the league performance wise?
I also looked again to see they are tied with Seattle at 16, so the exact middle.
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Their average depth is shorter than previous seasons though and where the Titans ranked. Again 8 yards is a relatively short throw and doesn’t take much time to develop. There have been some deep shots. Vikings game and Texans game are the only 2 that stand out. I’d bet you look at the other games and it’s shorter than that.
The total stats were in reference to the air yards and total yards you were referring to. Not an apples to apples comparison.
Not an apples to apples comparison with who?
All 32 teams have yards they gave up through the air and all teams have total passing yards allowed. The latter accounts for YAC from the WRs, the former does not.
It doesn’t matter if they played 6 or 7 games if you’ve played 6 and are already doing worse (given up more yards) than teams that played 7.
I suppose we could break it down by avg yards allowed through the air per game, that’s going to move the titans even lower though. (Titans have 171.5 per game, didn’t math the other 31 to rank)
What it does not break down is catch by catch yardage through the air. If a team has a small amount of deep completions it could appear exactly the same as a much higher amount at a shorter distance. The titans have an avg amount of completions against them (18th).
Total yards can be a direct reflection of pass attempts against.
Seattle has 287 while New England has only 168. You really think that’s a fair comparison? Lol goodness.
Well if you won’t listen to me maybe you’ll listen to someone else.
We're easy pickings if we're not pressing receivers at the line and standing 5 yards off. Looks like we're using zone coverage alot more this year but we can still press. No idea why we aint, be it lack of preseason, dbs not fast enough or just not that good but it is also affecting our pass rush. Can't remember who posted Ben's pass placements but like 90% of caught passes came within 5 - 10 yards from the Los. If dbs we disrupting the route not as many would have been caught and 3rd down conversions wouldn't have been soo bad.
We need to fix the easy completions underneath this week or Burrow will pick us apart. This should be the perfect time to get up and press some of these receivers off the line, and make him hold the ball for a beat longer than he wants to.
If we don't, he'll nickel and dime us all the way down the field.
If we don't, he'll nickel and dime us all the way down the field.
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