Titans Talk - Home for all things Tennessee Titans

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The entire argument is not proven by any analytics.
The idea is that Mahomes is “so good” that you don’t want him to have the ball second so you know how much points you need, but if Mahomes gets the TD, which is presumably why they’re so scared to give him the ball second, then your offense must score a TD and either go for a 2 pt win or give the ball right back and now a Mahomes FG drive wins the game.
Ultimately it seems like the argument is no matter what, if you’re against Mahome at least, you go for a TD and 2 pt conversion, regardless of number of 4th downs and placement on the field or distance to go.

bottom line is that SF taking the ball wasn’t a mistake period. You can make an argument for either way, but neither was wrong.

I mean, KC was at the 3 yd line on 3rd down. Missed Kelce in the corner on quick out… with this line of thinking, why not go for the win instead of tying the game? No difference from there than going for two in OT. Zero difference actually.

 

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Can you imagine telling your O that you’re not getting the ball, because we don’t want y’all tossing a sack fumble for TD… that’s crazy thinking. In OT winners want the ball! That’s the best way to produce points.

With the regular season rules of course you want your offense to get the ball first because they can win the game.... with the playoff rules the offense can't win the game on the first possession.... only the defense can. The offense on the 2nd possession actually can win the game.

It isn't about belittling your offense it is about giving your team the 1st 2 chances to win the game.

 

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Defense can win a game without scoring.

 

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Every 2023 OT game this season

week 1: NYJ beats Buf walk off PR, 2nd possession (bills won coin toss, RX)

Week 2: sea 1st possession TD over Det (sea won toss, RX)
Ten 2nd possession kicks FG over LAC (LAC win coin toss, RX)

Week 3: Indy on 5th possession kick FG over Balt (Ind won toss, RX)

Week 4: LAR 1st possession TD over Indy (LAR won toss, RX)
PHI 2nd possession FG over Wash (was won toss, RX)

week 8: NYJ 2nd possession FG over NYG (NUG won toss, RX)

week 12: Buf 1st possession kicks FG, phi 2nd possession TD wins (buf won toss, RX)

Week 13: ten kicks FG 1st possession, Indy gets TD 2nd possession. (Ten won toss, RX)
Cin kicks FG 2nd possession over Jax (Jax won toss, RX)

Week 14: balt PR TD 3rd possession over LAR (Balt won toss, RX)

Week 15: Cin 3rd possession FG over Min (Cin won toss, RX)
Hou 4th possession over Ten (titans won toss, RX)

13 OT games, 100% count toss winner recieved ball.
7x the 2nd possession won (1 was the PR)
2 of those, the team scored on the first possession.
2 games, 1st possession ended the game TD
4 games went to at least the 3rd possession, none of which both teams scored a FG.

whatever the analytics are, it seems every team that wins the toss is taking the ball.
Now if the analytics say because an offensive TD doesn’t win the game changes that all the way to favor getting the ball second, I’d like to see the proof.
Another piece of the speculation is that Shanahan and SF was unaware of the OT change for the playoffs. Despite the ref saying only a D score would end it on the first possession.

my argument is that I don’t think either decision is truly a “better” choice. Someone else mentioned it, giving the D a little longer break may have played a factor in their choice to take the ball too.
Then the decision still weighs on a 4th and 4 from KC 9, go or kick?

I thought the Chiefs were crazy going on 4th down from their position

 

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With the new rules in OT the first chance to win the game is to go for 2 on the second possession. Ain't no analytics that can deny that fact..... Shanahan screwed up.... the 3rd possession is a non-factor because anyone using analytics knows that your best chance to win is to go for a 2 point conversion vs. giving the other team the ball with a FG to win the game

Its also the first opportunity to potentionally lose the game. It's not an exact science no matter what the analytics say. And if this is the argument, then going for 2 if you have the ball first and score would also make sense, which means the 3rd possession could potentially be the most important.

The other factor is the 49ers d also just came off the field. The analytics can't measure everything.

 

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Scoring points on an OT drive boosts morale as well. SF drove the field. So knowledge of KC understanding what they need doesn’t change much imo. Defense knew it too, and had the game on one play. Bosa bit on the fake, and the play wasn’t made- even still it wasn’t done there, but the opportunity to end it was. Better to dictate events if you have a choice than the opposite.

George S. Patton: 'Nobody ever defended anything successfully, there is only attack and attack and attack some more.' — The Socratic Method