i dont want cutler. i love how you just pull things out of the air.RollTide said:
Omar jacobs..
Jacob's career touchdown to int ratio is 6X. Matt lienart's is 4.3X. Jacob set the ncaa record for TD to int ratio in 2004 with a 10.25 ratio! The guy is simply good.
He is big at 6'4 226 lbs. He has a very good to great arm. Like byron leftwich his best season was not his last and i think people hold that against him. A mistake. I have read numerous reports about this guy and the biggest concern is that he didn't play top competition a stupid concern since he played his career in the same conference as leftwich-rothlesberger-pennington.
Jacobs vs leftwich
TDs and ints final 2 years of college
Jacobs 67tds-11 ints(ratio 6X)
Leftwich 71 tds-19 ints(ratio 3.73X)
Best season
jacobs 41tds-4 ints... 4002 yards
Leftwich 41tds-9 ints...4698 yards
Career completion rate
Jacobs--64.3%
Leftwich 66.5%
Average yards per attempt
Jacobs 8.4
Leftwich 8.4
Now lefwich is a little bigger and probably has a stronger arm but jacobs is the better runner of the 2.
Jacobs is a great prospect and he will very likely be available in rd 2. I just think there is awesome value there and i honestly think he will be the best QB in this draft. Hang me later if i am wrong but jacobs is a better value early in rd 2 than young is with that 3rd pick.
Jacob's career touchdown to int ratio is 6X. Matt lienart's is 4.3X. Jacob set the ncaa record for TD to int ratio in 2004 with a 10.25 ratio! The guy is simply good.
He is big at 6'4 226 lbs. He has a very good to great arm. Like byron leftwich his best season was not his last and i think people hold that against him. A mistake. I have read numerous reports about this guy and the biggest concern is that he didn't play top competition a stupid concern since he played his career in the same conference as leftwich-rothlesberger-pennington.
Jacobs vs leftwich
TDs and ints final 2 years of college
Jacobs 67tds-11 ints(ratio 6X)
Leftwich 71 tds-19 ints(ratio 3.73X)
Best season
jacobs 41tds-4 ints... 4002 yards
Leftwich 41tds-9 ints...4698 yards
Career completion rate
Jacobs--64.3%
Leftwich 66.5%
Average yards per attempt
Jacobs 8.4
Leftwich 8.4
Now lefwich is a little bigger and probably has a stronger arm but jacobs is the better runner of the 2.
Jacobs is a great prospect and he will very likely be available in rd 2. I just think there is awesome value there and i honestly think he will be the best QB in this draft. Hang me later if i am wrong but jacobs is a better value early in rd 2 than young is with that 3rd pick.
that's the thing, there is no formula to the draft. there is no science to it. you look at the game tape and make a decision as to who will be the better pro.RollTide said:
Once again, you twist logic in new an unique ways.RollTide said:
Is the Titans goal to find a "servicable quarterback"? If you want anyone to take your arguments seriously, why even reach like this?
The goal is to find a QB who will be a productive starter in the league for a number of seasons (at least five). And in the Titans case in this draft, we are talking about taking a QB chosen with a top three pick.
So we are comparing QBs taken in the top three since 1982 and those in the second round. And we are looking for quality production over multiple seasons -- not just a "serviceable QB". Here's the facts:
QBs taken in the top three picks of the draft from 1982 - 2001
John Elway
Jim Everett
Vinny Testaverde
Troy Aikman
Jeff George
Drew Bledsoe
Rick Mirer - bust
Heath Shuler - bust
Steve McNair
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf - bust
Tim Couch - bust
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith - bust
Michael Vick
That's 15 QBs taken in the top three. Four were total busts but eleven played multiple seasons. I see this as a 27% bust rate. All of those who were not busts took their teams to the playoffs at least once. Three are (or will be HOFers).
QBs taken in the second round from 1982 - 2001
Oliver Luck
Matt Kofler
Boomer Esiason
Randall Cunningham
Jack Trudeau
Mike Elkins
Billy Joe Tolliver
Brett Farve
Browning Nagle
Matt Blundin
Tony Sacca
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
Tony Banks
Jake Plummer
Charlie Batch
Shaun King
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tulasosopo
The only players you have here which could remotely be considered quality are Farve, Esiason, Cunningham, Plummer and Brees. That's five out of 20. So we have 75% of those QBs taken in the second round amounting to little more than short-time starters, backups or pure busts.
So take a big whiff of those smelling salts yourself because when you use some decent logic here, you stand to get a quality QB with a top three pick 73% of the time to 25% if you wait until the second round.
Better than Leinart. Better than Young. Better than Cutler. You heard it here first, folks.
and what i don't understand is you're worried about young being exclusivly a shotgun qb. that's exactly what mcnair was, exaclty what leftwich was, and exactly what jacobs is.
they all played primarliy out of the shotgun in college. yet, for some reason young is different.
they all played primarliy out of the shotgun in college. yet, for some reason young is different.
RollTide said:
First off you didn't PROVE anything. It is impossible to prove any theory. All you can do is disprove theories. A theory holds true as long as it has not be disproven. Simple fact of science. It holds true with laws of gravity, behavior, and now the nfl draft.
) Seriously, there a lot of flaws in your theory. You're not taking into account the individual abilities of the personnel staff that selected them, the teams the 'successful' players were drafted to, etc etc. You are simply identifing one pattern that exists and putting your own meaning to it. For example, years ago we could have found a relationship between race and qb success rate. Would it have been because race was a factor in their success? Well there was a relationship, but the relationship was created by racism in the system- not by actual talent and value of the players. Your analyses have the same flaw (though not the politically heated reprecussions). They are usuing a correlation or a pattern that they see and tying to use it without out knowing what creates the pattern.
One could probably derive a formula to accurately predict the success of each player- if you had all the necessary variables. The problem is no one has those variables. Thats the why the draft is as much art as science.
What bugs me though is your misuse of stats. People say you can make a stat say anything you want. Thats not really true. But any person can use stats to support their arguements and state them as law. When actually every stat has a lof of qualifiers in it.
For example, you challenged the comparison of Pennington to Lienart and then tried to use stats back up your arguement. You cant do that. They played for and against very different teams. Not to mention that almost all of football stats are team stats. Yes even yards, completions, tds, and qb ratings. Which means comparing one athlete to another just using stats is erroneouus. Thats why no one will ever know if Larry Bird was/is better than Michael Jordan in their prime. Though we all have our own opinions. Maybe it would be better to use Kobe and Wilt these days- but you get the point.
The only real way to compare players is by their ability. Its a subjective judgment, which means everyone's point is valid and no one can "win" an arguement.
In this messageboard a poster tried to compare the abilities of Pennington and Leinart (arm strength, accuracy) but then you brought stats back into it. Again those stats are a meausure of a team's success. The only stat that I can think of that is not heavily based on team peformance is attempts or carries, but I dont really see the usefulness of those stats.
Personally, I think Cutler is the best Qb coming out in this draft. I can talk abilities all I want, but the first minute someone brings stats in I have to flinch. Not because they hurt my argument (though I have to admit they usually do) but because its not a good way to compare them.
Its all subjective- which is why we are able to debate the same topic for the next several months.
)Thanks jeff..
You have proven you don't understand...
Read this line i have repeated this point many times. It lies at the heart of my whole argument and you have not read with enough comprehension to even know that..
-------------------------
What i'm saying and what i PROVED is that when you take away that top pick, the guys like elway aikman and manning the bust rate soars! Soars
----------------------------
That has been my whole point jeff. In vince young we are not drafting john elway, peyton manning, carson palmer, troy aikman or even drew bledsoe. Those guys were the first picks in their respected drafts. If John elway is in this draft we don't get him. If peyton manning was in this draft we would not get him. They would be gone! So they don't count. When you take away those first pick prospects, the guys who will be gone by the third pick you end up with garbage!
Manning-bledsoe-mcnabb-elway-aikman-testeverde-vick were all taken higher in their respected draft then were will be picking in this one.
That's why i made a list of QBs taken 2nd, 3rd and 4th to see what the results were without that top pick. That's why i made a list of QBs who were high picks but second at their position. To try and get a better idea what our odds were.
In vince young we would be drafting a guy with incredible talent but also with many question marks. He is not the caliber of prospect that aikman, manning, elway or palmer were. He is probably not equal to lienart either. Young did not play in a pro style offense, he did not take snaps from center. He won games more with his legs than his arm(see rose bowl) and has an unorthodox throwing motion. His arm while good enough to succeed is not as good as mcnair's.
Does that mean that young is not a quality prospect. No he is definitely worth a top 8 pick but is he the best option at 3rd?
You have proven you don't understand...
Read this line i have repeated this point many times. It lies at the heart of my whole argument and you have not read with enough comprehension to even know that..
-------------------------
What i'm saying and what i PROVED is that when you take away that top pick, the guys like elway aikman and manning the bust rate soars! Soars
----------------------------
That has been my whole point jeff. In vince young we are not drafting john elway, peyton manning, carson palmer, troy aikman or even drew bledsoe. Those guys were the first picks in their respected drafts. If John elway is in this draft we don't get him. If peyton manning was in this draft we would not get him. They would be gone! So they don't count. When you take away those first pick prospects, the guys who will be gone by the third pick you end up with garbage!
Manning-bledsoe-mcnabb-elway-aikman-testeverde-vick were all taken higher in their respected draft then were will be picking in this one.
That's why i made a list of QBs taken 2nd, 3rd and 4th to see what the results were without that top pick. That's why i made a list of QBs who were high picks but second at their position. To try and get a better idea what our odds were.
In vince young we would be drafting a guy with incredible talent but also with many question marks. He is not the caliber of prospect that aikman, manning, elway or palmer were. He is probably not equal to lienart either. Young did not play in a pro style offense, he did not take snaps from center. He won games more with his legs than his arm(see rose bowl) and has an unorthodox throwing motion. His arm while good enough to succeed is not as good as mcnair's.
Does that mean that young is not a quality prospect. No he is definitely worth a top 8 pick but is he the best option at 3rd?
RollTide said:
The funny thing is I agree with your final conclusion. Its just your argument that I find faulty. :ha:
Prag...
Your post makes no sense and in no way did i misuse stats. That's BS..
In the pennington-lienart comparison i didn't use stats at all to compare the 2 players head to head. All i said was that pennington is a good nfl player and used a stat(passing rating 92) to illustrate that. Since pennington's biggest problem as an nfl player is that he is injured often i brought up the FACT that lienart has been durable in college. So where is the misuse of a stat? The only other stat i used was that lienart is taller and he is. You have a problem with that. How?
It was another poster who said that lienart might be another pennington and i sure don't remember anything said about arm or accuracy. Are you seeing things?
As far as comparing players in ability how do you do that? Ignore their performance on the field? What constitutes ability then? How do you measure passing accuracy for a QB prospect? By the size of his jock? Or the percentage of passes completed?
Based on your logic we shouldn't keep score of nfl games. Let a few guys subjectively decide who won. Like boxing.
Your post makes no sense and in no way did i misuse stats. That's BS..
In the pennington-lienart comparison i didn't use stats at all to compare the 2 players head to head. All i said was that pennington is a good nfl player and used a stat(passing rating 92) to illustrate that. Since pennington's biggest problem as an nfl player is that he is injured often i brought up the FACT that lienart has been durable in college. So where is the misuse of a stat? The only other stat i used was that lienart is taller and he is. You have a problem with that. How?
It was another poster who said that lienart might be another pennington and i sure don't remember anything said about arm or accuracy. Are you seeing things?
As far as comparing players in ability how do you do that? Ignore their performance on the field? What constitutes ability then? How do you measure passing accuracy for a QB prospect? By the size of his jock? Or the percentage of passes completed?
Based on your logic we shouldn't keep score of nfl games. Let a few guys subjectively decide who won. Like boxing.
Vince is different bigtitan..
He is the only QB you mentioned that we are considering drafting with the third pick.
Your argument is fair, if mcnair and leftwich have been good players then maybe it's not that big a concern for young. I'll cross that off my list.
Thank you sir. I want you guys to make vince young's case on this thread. I want you to say why we need to draft this guy. Why is vince young essential to our team and why is he a better prospect than say a cutler or jacobs?
He is the only QB you mentioned that we are considering drafting with the third pick.
Your argument is fair, if mcnair and leftwich have been good players then maybe it's not that big a concern for young. I'll cross that off my list.
Thank you sir. I want you guys to make vince young's case on this thread. I want you to say why we need to draft this guy. Why is vince young essential to our team and why is he a better prospect than say a cutler or jacobs?
two surgeries to your throwing arm is durable?RollTide said:
http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/qb/mattleinart.html
The only thing you've proven the flawed way you pick and choose your stats.RollTide said:
The Titans pick #3 this draft. Guess how many QBs have been taken in the top three when another QB was been taken with the first two picks?
Three times. Only three times from '82 to '01 has a second QB been taken in the top three. So your big time bust rate theory is based on three cases in nearly 20 drafts?
One of those was McNabb. Not too shabby, eh?
Heath Shuler and Tim Couch were the first QBs chosen within the first three picks in their respective drafts too.
I hope you keep those smelling salts handy.
RollTide said:
First, its not that the post did not make sense. It is that you did not comprehend it. Thats ok. It doesnt bother me.
Second, you did use a stat to illustrate Pennington's pass percentage- as you admited. That percentage is a combintation of his accuracy, the recievers ability to catch, the teams they play against, the play that is called, etc, etc. There is no way of knowing from that stat which is the more accurate passer. The only way we can really determine that is if the two of them decided to test it out together with a fair and balanced measure. Otherwise there is not a way to tell who is truly better. That is why this is a team sport. All we can do is make inferences; and inferences almost always come with qualifiers. Qualifiers you choose to ignore to better sell your point.
Third, saying that with my logic we shouldn't keep score was inflammatory and just odd. That is how a TEAM determines who is better. I'm not saying you can't use quantitative data to determine who is better. I'm saying the quantitative data that is avaliable cannot be used to compare athletes individually. They can be used to compare athletes on a team, but not athletes individually, which is what we want to do for prospects. I'm basically saying that you cannot use stats to say one college prospect is better than another.
Fourth you asked if you cant use stats to evaluate a propect then how do you evaluate one. That is a good question. You try to break down the abilities that that position needs and evaluate the prospect on each of those abilities. Again, you cant do that with a TEAM stat; you need an individual's stat. Which we dont have. So all we can do is make subjective guesses. Cutler's arm is stonger or weaker than Leinarts, whose is stronger or weaker than Young's. Thats all we can really do. I hope this is clearer for you. :hmm:
Let me add to Prag's great posts that there's a reason why scouts and GM's look at gametape and not just compiles a total statsheet and find whoever's at the top.
Stats by themselves are meaningless.
I'm afraid your scientific reasoning wont ever win over RollTide though.
Stats by themselves are meaningless.
I'm afraid your scientific reasoning wont ever win over RollTide though.
TitanJeff said:
Tide might make a point if we could get a guy like Jacobs in the second and take a guy like Ferguson in the first. Jacobs could end up being a solid NFL QB with Ferguson an all-pro OT. Ferguson certainly is ranked right up there as one of the BPA and on top of that he is possibly the closest thing to a sure thing in this draft.
This is looking to be a fairly strong draft for QBs compared to what I originally thought. There are some QBs that have potential in the second round on to be solid pros. Jacobs is definately the #4 QB in this draft and would be a great value IMO with our 2nd round pick.
Prag..... visteg..
Visteg, you tell me what is scientific about anything prag has said. Nothing! he is suggesting that individual stats are meaningless. Walter payton's 16000 yards rushing is no indication that he was a good player.
Prag, you have only clouded this whole issue. You have not come up with a formula that works better just a bunch of vague variables about nothing. What would this fair and balanced measure be? I have two millionaire QBs come over and throw the ball around the back yard? If you can't come up with anything better your entire post means nothing.
An nfl passing rating is a statistic of effeciency. Every time a QB throws a pass what is the percentage chance of a certain outcome; what percentage of passes are complete, not complete, what percentage of passes are touchdowns or interceptions and how much yardage is produced per pass. It is the best measure we have of how effective a passer is.
The points i made are not absolute. I never said we should avoid drafting a QB with the third pick at all costs. I just pointed out that quarterbacks drafted in that situation have not done well. The percentage of busts are high. That is a fact which goes a lot further than a bunch of gobblelygook. You don't even counter with any specifics.
What is your formula again for determining whether or not a player is a good prospect? I missed that. I read a bunch of nonsense about how his actual performance on the field doesn't matter so what do you have that is better? I have not even used a lot of college stats on this thread. I wrote one post comparing jacob's college stats to leftwich. So what?
Visteg, you tell me what is scientific about anything prag has said. Nothing! he is suggesting that individual stats are meaningless. Walter payton's 16000 yards rushing is no indication that he was a good player.
Prag, you have only clouded this whole issue. You have not come up with a formula that works better just a bunch of vague variables about nothing. What would this fair and balanced measure be? I have two millionaire QBs come over and throw the ball around the back yard? If you can't come up with anything better your entire post means nothing.
An nfl passing rating is a statistic of effeciency. Every time a QB throws a pass what is the percentage chance of a certain outcome; what percentage of passes are complete, not complete, what percentage of passes are touchdowns or interceptions and how much yardage is produced per pass. It is the best measure we have of how effective a passer is.
The points i made are not absolute. I never said we should avoid drafting a QB with the third pick at all costs. I just pointed out that quarterbacks drafted in that situation have not done well. The percentage of busts are high. That is a fact which goes a lot further than a bunch of gobblelygook. You don't even counter with any specifics.
What is your formula again for determining whether or not a player is a good prospect? I missed that. I read a bunch of nonsense about how his actual performance on the field doesn't matter so what do you have that is better? I have not even used a lot of college stats on this thread. I wrote one post comparing jacob's college stats to leftwich. So what?
Visteg...
there's a reason why scouts and GM's look at gametape
-------------------------------
This is a discussion thread. We are a bunch of fans who do not have access to every game film for every propect and none of us can hire scouts. I have never posted a single damn thing that would ever suggest not scouting or looking at film. Not one damn thing!
Particular player stats have had little to do with this entire discussion. Do you know that? I never said we should pass on vince young because his stats were not good enough. I never commented on young's stats at all.
The difference between me and folks like you is that i put forth the effort to accumulate whatever info i can on the web. I don't have film, i don't have scouts and i don't have the luxury of seeing a personal workout. But i do use what is available to me. Lazy posters just sit on their butts and bash others.
What do you call this laziness? Scientific reasoning. Yeah right.
there's a reason why scouts and GM's look at gametape
-------------------------------
This is a discussion thread. We are a bunch of fans who do not have access to every game film for every propect and none of us can hire scouts. I have never posted a single damn thing that would ever suggest not scouting or looking at film. Not one damn thing!
Particular player stats have had little to do with this entire discussion. Do you know that? I never said we should pass on vince young because his stats were not good enough. I never commented on young's stats at all.
The difference between me and folks like you is that i put forth the effort to accumulate whatever info i can on the web. I don't have film, i don't have scouts and i don't have the luxury of seeing a personal workout. But i do use what is available to me. Lazy posters just sit on their butts and bash others.
What do you call this laziness? Scientific reasoning. Yeah right.
Jeff...
I agree three is not a big enough sample to draw any conclusions which is why my list had all QBs drafted in the top 10 picks who were the second taken at their position.
The problem is you are too stuck on this 2nd QB taken thing. My first and primary list simply included ALL QBs taken 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Whether they were the top pick at their postion or not. This sample is 10 draft picks spanning 23 years.
QBs taken with the 2nd third or 4th picks 1982-2004
82-Art Schlichter
86-jim everett
93-rick mirer
94 heath shuler
95-steve mcnair
98-ryan leaf
99-donovan mcnabb
99-Akili smith
02-joey harrington
04-phillip rivers
The list might not be so bad if harrington turns his play around and rivers becomes good. Still some real losers there jeff. More than the good QBs. At this point the only QBs who would QB my team would be mcnabb or mcnair.
I agree three is not a big enough sample to draw any conclusions which is why my list had all QBs drafted in the top 10 picks who were the second taken at their position.
The problem is you are too stuck on this 2nd QB taken thing. My first and primary list simply included ALL QBs taken 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Whether they were the top pick at their postion or not. This sample is 10 draft picks spanning 23 years.
QBs taken with the 2nd third or 4th picks 1982-2004
82-Art Schlichter
86-jim everett
93-rick mirer
94 heath shuler
95-steve mcnair
98-ryan leaf
99-donovan mcnabb
99-Akili smith
02-joey harrington
04-phillip rivers
The list might not be so bad if harrington turns his play around and rivers becomes good. Still some real losers there jeff. More than the good QBs. At this point the only QBs who would QB my team would be mcnabb or mcnair.
You seem to be using your "argument" to explain why we shouldn't draft Young. But yet, you are overlooking New Orleans, assuming you know what their decision will be. By your logic, whoever New Orleans' front office (*cough cough* nice crew there) decides to draft is going to be the best qb. Also, by your logic, had Brady Quinn entered this draft and graded out higher than Leinart or Young, that would make them both failures. It would also mean that if he slipped to number 3 or lower, that he is doomed to failure.
One thing about statistics is that they're only as smart as the person using them. In this case, that would mean they're pretty much worthless I'm afraid. =(
One thing about statistics is that they're only as smart as the person using them. In this case, that would mean they're pretty much worthless I'm afraid. =(
RollTide said:
Dang dude, calm down. By what you're infering I can tell you're not understanding my points and your getting pretty defensive. When you're ready to finish this in a calm, well reasoned argument, I'll be glad to pick it back up. Re-read my posts a couple of more times and they'll make sense. No-worries. We'll all know the outcome soon enough. For now...chill...
:hmm:
- Status
- Not open for further replies.
