I think that Ferguson will go to more pro-bowls than any other guy in this draft and thus he is the safest pick in the draft. Franchise LTs come along a lot less frequently than franchise QBs and they are never found later in the draft or in FA because they never hit the market. Do you have to have a franchise LT to win a SB? of course not because most teams don't have franchise LTs. In the past 10 yrs their have only been 3 franchise LTs(Ogden, Pace, Jones) and between them they have played in 4 of the last 7 Super Bowls which isn't a bad record.
If I were building a team I would build up my defense and OLINE before considering a QB.
I think that a lot of QBs have their talents wasted by being forced into very difficult situations.
If I were building a team I would build up my defense and OLINE before considering a QB.
I think that a lot of QBs have their talents wasted by being forced into very difficult situations.
Alex smith and drbrick...
Gunny, alex smith turned 21 in may 2005. Same age as a lot of rookie QBs.
I'm not sure why someone would compare daunte culpepper to alex smith. We know culpepper can play but smith's only performance has been horrible.
If this was feb 1999 it could easily be ryan leaf that i would be bashing and all of you guys coming to his defense. Smith's rookie performance was similar to leaf's. Worse than horrible!
Compare smith's rookie season to peyton manning's and tell me of there is any comparison. What glimmer of hope is there that this guy will ever be good? The 49ers have already complained about his small hands(6'5 with small hands?) which is why he fumbled so much. Is he in some off season program for growing longer fingers?
I'm not a 49ers fan, i have no emotional stake in this issue. We have seen bust out QBs before and this guy looks like the poster boy.
Dbrick is the least risky pick in this draft. Drafting him would give us book end o-tackles for the next decade. OT is a position of longevity where a player can produce for many years. Willie roaf made the pro bowl in his 13th season. Willie anderson in his 10th year and orlando pace in his 9th.
Gunny, alex smith turned 21 in may 2005. Same age as a lot of rookie QBs.
I'm not sure why someone would compare daunte culpepper to alex smith. We know culpepper can play but smith's only performance has been horrible.
If this was feb 1999 it could easily be ryan leaf that i would be bashing and all of you guys coming to his defense. Smith's rookie performance was similar to leaf's. Worse than horrible!
Compare smith's rookie season to peyton manning's and tell me of there is any comparison. What glimmer of hope is there that this guy will ever be good? The 49ers have already complained about his small hands(6'5 with small hands?) which is why he fumbled so much. Is he in some off season program for growing longer fingers?
I'm not a 49ers fan, i have no emotional stake in this issue. We have seen bust out QBs before and this guy looks like the poster boy.
Dbrick is the least risky pick in this draft. Drafting him would give us book end o-tackles for the next decade. OT is a position of longevity where a player can produce for many years. Willie roaf made the pro bowl in his 13th season. Willie anderson in his 10th year and orlando pace in his 9th.
No one said Alex Smith would or wouldn't be a bust... except you. We said it's too early to condemn him. If this year was the only time you had seen Daunte play, I guess you would send him to go play ball in Europe. Why do you make comparisons that don't make any sense ? Oh, so he's not Peyton Manning. Clearly that means that he'll never be a good quarterback lol.
Glimmer of hope ? Did you even watch him in college ? He's a really smart, big, athletic qb who played brilliantly his senior year (and played well before that). Why, other than playing poorly for a horrible team in limited action, do you think he won't be decent ?
Glimmer of hope ? Did you even watch him in college ? He's a really smart, big, athletic qb who played brilliantly his senior year (and played well before that). Why, other than playing poorly for a horrible team in limited action, do you think he won't be decent ?
What exactly do you expect from Alex Smith, being a rookie on a terrible team with no O-Line, Running Backs or Recievers.
In fact what do you expect from any rookie? Look how much Eli Manning sucked in New York during his rookie year compared to this year. McNabb had a terrible first season as well. It isnt rare.
In fact what do you expect from any rookie? Look how much Eli Manning sucked in New York during his rookie year compared to this year. McNabb had a terrible first season as well. It isnt rare.
Gunny.....2008
2008, you brought daunte culpepper into this discussion so if he is a dumb comparison it is on you.
Both you guys need to refine your thinking. If smith had simply played poorly there wouldn't be any discussion. My point gunny, is that he played worse than bad unless you can't tell the difference between how eli played in 2004 and how smith played in 2005. You can't tell the difference gunny? The difference between 6 TDs and 9 ints as opposed to 1 td and 11 ints? Eli had 3 fumbles his rookie year smith had 11. No difference? Hello?
Why would a runningback defend a guy who put the ball on the ground 11 times in just half a season of play?
And 2008, i don't mean to shock you but i'm not the 49er GM. My opinion will not effect poor millionaire alex smith. I can't banish him to the euro league even if i wanted to though his play this year might be more suitable for the australian semi pro league(he he). I'm evaluating him based on what he did on the field and if he is all pro a couple of years from now you can tell me about it. Sometimes it doesn't take long for a player to accumulate enough of a foul odor for us to start calling him a bust.
2008, you brought daunte culpepper into this discussion so if he is a dumb comparison it is on you.
Both you guys need to refine your thinking. If smith had simply played poorly there wouldn't be any discussion. My point gunny, is that he played worse than bad unless you can't tell the difference between how eli played in 2004 and how smith played in 2005. You can't tell the difference gunny? The difference between 6 TDs and 9 ints as opposed to 1 td and 11 ints? Eli had 3 fumbles his rookie year smith had 11. No difference? Hello?
Why would a runningback defend a guy who put the ball on the ground 11 times in just half a season of play?
And 2008, i don't mean to shock you but i'm not the 49er GM. My opinion will not effect poor millionaire alex smith. I can't banish him to the euro league even if i wanted to though his play this year might be more suitable for the australian semi pro league(he he). I'm evaluating him based on what he did on the field and if he is all pro a couple of years from now you can tell me about it. Sometimes it doesn't take long for a player to accumulate enough of a foul odor for us to start calling him a bust.
I didn't say he was a dumb comparison... I think he proves that you can't judge a player's career on one season. Smith had one of the worst rookie seasons of any quarterbacks ever, there is no doubt. I tend to lean towards him being a bust, but 7 games isn't enough time to evaluate anyone, let alone a rookie qb (who are notoriously bad their first year or two... why do you think every team is sitting them now ?).
And besides, running backs are supposed to help block. Take a look at what the Edge does for Peyton's protection.
I never said that I think he will or won't be a decent player. I tend to not want to give up on someone who showed so much promise less than one year ago. Especially coupled with the history of rookie qb's thrown into the starting job.
And besides, running backs are supposed to help block. Take a look at what the Edge does for Peyton's protection.
I never said that I think he will or won't be a decent player. I tend to not want to give up on someone who showed so much promise less than one year ago. Especially coupled with the history of rookie qb's thrown into the starting job.
Let me get this right. Alex Smith WAS the #1 guy taken but because Leinart would have/could have been the #1 guy but decided not to enter the draft that makes Smith the #2 QB and doomed to Leaf/SMith fame.
But if VY gets picked before Leinart this year which could easily happen that would make Leinart the Leaf/Smith QB. Sounds pretty stupid to me.
The bottom line is teams have reached for guys because QB is such as critical position and a bunch didn't live up to expectations because QB is the hardest postion to transition to in the NFL. However, the odds are not good if you wait to draft one either. You just have to try and get the best one you can just like any other postion. Even the 1st QB picked can end up being a dud.
But if VY gets picked before Leinart this year which could easily happen that would make Leinart the Leaf/Smith QB. Sounds pretty stupid to me.
The bottom line is teams have reached for guys because QB is such as critical position and a bunch didn't live up to expectations because QB is the hardest postion to transition to in the NFL. However, the odds are not good if you wait to draft one either. You just have to try and get the best one you can just like any other postion. Even the 1st QB picked can end up being a dud.
RollTide said:
Hey, we blooded Eric Mangini for two years as a head coach and now look where he is, we can make Alex Smith a QB. :brow:
My point is simple. Just because there is a risk involved, you don't overlook a talented player because he is the second one in his position available in the draft. To overlook Young just because Leinart is taken at two is, as you say, the dumbest thing you could do.RollTide said:
Wasn't Smith taken #1 last year? :suspect:
Using your logic, if Young was taken at #2, Leinart would be a bad pick at #3. Or vice-versa.
I'll ask again because you totally ignored it before. Who you take at #3 if Bush and Leinart are taken #1 and #2?
The only way Tide's thinking makes sense is if there is a significant difference in ability or character between the first QB and the second. If both QBs have the attributes to be equally productive at the NFL level you, as Jeff said, cannot ignore the second guy. This year is a perfect example of Tide's logic being flawed IMO.
It's getting more moronic by the minute..
I never said that we shouldn't draft vince young simply because he was the 2nd choice. Where did i say that? What i'm saying and what i PROVED is that when you take away that top pick, the guys like elway aikman and manning the bust rate soars! Soars! I didn't just talk about the 2nd QB taken i listed every single damn QB taken 2, 3 or 4 since 1982 and quess what? 7 of 10 proven busts!
Probably the dumbest thing is this notion that lienart and young are equals. Here you have two completely different QBs. One a runner the other a proto-type pocket passer. One played in a pro system identical to the one the titans play. The other played in a college offense that no NFL team plays. One took snaps from the center his whole career the other played shotgun exclusively. So please do not tell me they are interchangable. They are not. You have to like one over the other!
Lienart won 2 national championships and the heisman with norm chow's offense and that doesn't matter?
All i'm suggesting here is that there may, may, be better options than just taking vince young. That other players might provide less risk and better value. What's wrong with that? Snap out of your robotic mentality!
If a proto-type QB like byron leftwich can last intil the 7th pick then don't tell me that young is automatic at the 3rd pick. Leftwich is 6'5 245 lbs and has a much stronger arm than either young or lienart. And there is a leftwich type QB that can be had much later in omar jacobs. Jacobs might turn out to be the best QB in this draft.
I never said that we shouldn't draft vince young simply because he was the 2nd choice. Where did i say that? What i'm saying and what i PROVED is that when you take away that top pick, the guys like elway aikman and manning the bust rate soars! Soars! I didn't just talk about the 2nd QB taken i listed every single damn QB taken 2, 3 or 4 since 1982 and quess what? 7 of 10 proven busts!
Probably the dumbest thing is this notion that lienart and young are equals. Here you have two completely different QBs. One a runner the other a proto-type pocket passer. One played in a pro system identical to the one the titans play. The other played in a college offense that no NFL team plays. One took snaps from the center his whole career the other played shotgun exclusively. So please do not tell me they are interchangable. They are not. You have to like one over the other!
Lienart won 2 national championships and the heisman with norm chow's offense and that doesn't matter?
All i'm suggesting here is that there may, may, be better options than just taking vince young. That other players might provide less risk and better value. What's wrong with that? Snap out of your robotic mentality!
If a proto-type QB like byron leftwich can last intil the 7th pick then don't tell me that young is automatic at the 3rd pick. Leftwich is 6'5 245 lbs and has a much stronger arm than either young or lienart. And there is a leftwich type QB that can be had much later in omar jacobs. Jacobs might turn out to be the best QB in this draft.
danny wuerffel won a hiesman trophy and a national championship in a college system people thought would work in the pros too.RollTide said:
whether chow's system will work in the pros has yet to be seen.
Pointless discussion if you ask me. You can't foretell who is going to end up the better pick based on their college throphies, awards or stats nor can you use simple draft statistics to gauge their future. You have to make a personal decision on who you like the most, who fits your system the best, who has the better chemistry with you and your team and who you think you'll have more success developing.
This decision will vary from team to team, which is why it is pointless to say one is better than the other, regardless of when they're picked.
This decision will vary from team to team, which is why it is pointless to say one is better than the other, regardless of when they're picked.
So you want to trade out of #3 (pass on Young) and take Omar Jacobs?RollTide said:
If you think the odds for a bust is high for a QB taken in the top five, try the fourth or fifth QB taken in the late-second or third round.
Big titan...
whether chow's system will work in the pros has yet to be seen.
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Huh? The west coast offense has not been proven to be successful? That's what his offense is. With an emphasis on execution and simplicity as opposed to trying to out smart your opponent.
Danny wuerffel was not a high first rd draft choice. People knew that his arm probably wasn't good enough and that is why he lasted until the 4th rd. Not a good comparison at all. You going to compare carson palmer to wuerffel as well?
whether chow's system will work in the pros has yet to be seen.
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Huh? The west coast offense has not been proven to be successful? That's what his offense is. With an emphasis on execution and simplicity as opposed to trying to out smart your opponent.
Danny wuerffel was not a high first rd draft choice. People knew that his arm probably wasn't good enough and that is why he lasted until the 4th rd. Not a good comparison at all. You going to compare carson palmer to wuerffel as well?
i think lienart is a better comparison. neither of them have cannon arms and both had a lot of talent around them on offense.RollTide said:
people compared palmer to troy aikman. that's the kind of qb i want. people compare matt lienart to chad pennington. i dont want chad pennington. if you want chad pennington, put in a word with the FO, he'll be available in a few weeks.
The incredible high risk of drafting a QB in rd 2..
The real risk is getting into a debate with rolltide. Disagreeing with rolltide is like getting into the ring with tommy hearns; You know the right hand is coming and i'm about to drop it. One could assume that there would be a higher chance of bust for a quarterback taken in rd 2 then at the top of rd one right?
Surely drafting a QB with the 2nd, 3rd or 4th pick in the entire draft is going to reap far superior results than getting a guy in rd 2 right? Wrong!
From 1982 to 2004 there have been 19 QBs taken in rd 2. Among those 19 were:
Brett favre
Randall cunningham
Boomer esiason
Jake plummer
Drew brees
In addition You had several servicable Qbs who at least were backups somewhere instead of being total busts.
Kordell stewart
Jack trudeau
todd collins
tony banks
charlie batch
shaun king
8 of the 19 were basically worthless busts, only 42%!!! 7 of the ten QBs drafted with picks 2, 3 or 4 were busts..70%!!!
In reality it has actually been less risky drafting a QB in this rd than in picks 2, 3 or 4. You are more likely to get a player of some value and even more likely to get a star.
Now please get jeff some smelling salts.
Omar jacobs will be the best QB in this draft! Write it down!
The real risk is getting into a debate with rolltide. Disagreeing with rolltide is like getting into the ring with tommy hearns; You know the right hand is coming and i'm about to drop it. One could assume that there would be a higher chance of bust for a quarterback taken in rd 2 then at the top of rd one right?
Surely drafting a QB with the 2nd, 3rd or 4th pick in the entire draft is going to reap far superior results than getting a guy in rd 2 right? Wrong!
From 1982 to 2004 there have been 19 QBs taken in rd 2. Among those 19 were:
Brett favre
Randall cunningham
Boomer esiason
Jake plummer
Drew brees
In addition You had several servicable Qbs who at least were backups somewhere instead of being total busts.
Kordell stewart
Jack trudeau
todd collins
tony banks
charlie batch
shaun king
8 of the 19 were basically worthless busts, only 42%!!! 7 of the ten QBs drafted with picks 2, 3 or 4 were busts..70%!!!
In reality it has actually been less risky drafting a QB in this rd than in picks 2, 3 or 4. You are more likely to get a player of some value and even more likely to get a star.
Now please get jeff some smelling salts.
Omar jacobs will be the best QB in this draft! Write it down!
RollTide said:
The only problem with your whole argument is that you are trying to back up suppositions with correlations. Correlations depict a relationship but they dont define the relationship. There are too many other factors present on why an individual is drafted when they are drafted to infer judgements on their future success or ability from such a draft position. You are focusing too much on one particular variable. Any prediction needs to be based on multiple variables. Theoretically, the more variables one can put into the prediction the more accurate one can make the prediction.
In other words, you're putting too much stock in what place previous QB's have been draft.
:winker:
Big titan...
Who is this troy aikman carson palmer guy we can draft? Jay cutler? You are joking right? If cutler had those credentials he would be drafted ahead of lienart or young.
Lienart=chad pennington? In what way lienart is good? Pennington has one of the highest career passing ratings in the league. The guy has been an exellent player. He is just injury prone and since lienart has not missed a game in 3 years at usc you can't say that about him. A durable chad pennington would be a top 10 QB. What is more is that lienart is probably a better athlete than pennington and lienart is larger at 6'5 while pennington is 6'2.
Once again we have a poster who doesn't do his homework. You take a guy with a career 92 passing rating and put him up as some poster boy for bust out.:sad2:
Who is this troy aikman carson palmer guy we can draft? Jay cutler? You are joking right? If cutler had those credentials he would be drafted ahead of lienart or young.
Lienart=chad pennington? In what way lienart is good? Pennington has one of the highest career passing ratings in the league. The guy has been an exellent player. He is just injury prone and since lienart has not missed a game in 3 years at usc you can't say that about him. A durable chad pennington would be a top 10 QB. What is more is that lienart is probably a better athlete than pennington and lienart is larger at 6'5 while pennington is 6'2.
Once again we have a poster who doesn't do his homework. You take a guy with a career 92 passing rating and put him up as some poster boy for bust out.:sad2:
Prag...
The numbers are not absolute and are not meant to be taken that way but they do prove that you have as good a chance at getting a quality QB in rd 2 as you do in pick 3.
Hey if you got a better formula then tell us about it; show us the data and then your conclusions from that data. You would be the first poster other than me with real ideas instead of lame arguements against someone with real ideas.
The numbers are not absolute and are not meant to be taken that way but they do prove that you have as good a chance at getting a quality QB in rd 2 as you do in pick 3.
Hey if you got a better formula then tell us about it; show us the data and then your conclusions from that data. You would be the first poster other than me with real ideas instead of lame arguements against someone with real ideas.
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