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The passing offense this year has been abysmal, so I wanted to see if there was anything statistically that could be used to understand what's happening. Here's some advanced passing stats to put things in perspective on Tannehill and the rest of the league (Per Pro-Football Reference):

Bad Throw%: 17th best
On Target%: 6th best
Pressure Rate: 17th best
Pocket Time: T-14th best
Intended Air Yards: T-25th best
Completed Air Yards/Attempt: T-20th best

So what this all tells me is that Tannehill is around the middle of the league in terms of getting pressured and time in the pocket, he's making some bad decisions at times, but also top tier in terms of his accuracy. This goes counter to the argument everyone wants to make that he has absolutely no time to throw. The OL has protected him better as of late, and he's middle of the league in terms of protection. It's not a complete turnstile.

The most damning thing to me is those last two categories about air yards. Those are the distances that the ball is intended to travel on a per throw basis. This is saying that our offense is not throwing the ball down the field at all, and we're not even trying. Now is that Downing being a crap play caller/coordinator, or Tannehill just having to dump it off more? I don't know. Probably some combination of both. Obviously not having AJB and half the WR corp out for half the season can't help, but that's not the only thing that is at play.

Another stat that has tanked in comparison to recent years is our play action%. In his time as a starter in 2019 and 2020 we ran play action on 29 and 32 percent of our passing plays respectively. In 2021 we're down to 23%. We also have our lowest yards/play action pass of any year as well, down from 14.8 in 2019 and 9.8 in 2020 to 8.6 this year. Losing Henry hurts, sure, but we had him for 8 games and run game has still been effective, yet we're still not running nearly as much play action and not putting the ball down the field when we do.

All of this says to me that part of the blame has to lie on the offensive scheme and play calling. It's not the only reason for the offensive woe's we're having, but it certainly deserves some share of the blame.
Thanks for the additional stats and the questions are valid.
Is it THill?
Is the OL break down preventing deeper att?
Is downing calling for short throws? Is that because of THill or the OL?

the only thing to consider about those rankings is that those encompass the entire season. To me, those rankings have probably dropped over the previous 6 weeks which would mean THill is probably less than avg over that period. Still points to the same questions though.
 
Thanks for the additional stats and the questions are valid.
Is it THill?
Is the OL break down preventing deeper att?
Is downing calling for short throws? Is that because of THill or the OL?

the only thing to consider about those rankings is that those encompass the entire season. To me, those rankings have probably dropped over the previous 6 weeks which would mean THill is probably less than avg over that period. Still points to the same questions though.
Exactly, I don't think there is just one answer to the issues. But there have been issues with the passing game since the beginning of the year - we just glossed over them because Henry was putting up MVP stats on the ground.

Tannehill threw 10 TD's to 7 INT's in the first 8 games when AJB, Julio and Henry were all around in some combination. That's not great, but the OL was playing like crap then too. I think all parties deserve some share of the blame for this offense doing their best impression of the Bears or Jags offense.

I keep going back and forth on how to feel about Downing. Part of me wants to say that Downing shouldn't carry a lot of the blame because this is his first year as the OC. That always has its growing pains and issues, plus the insane number of injuries. But the other part of that story is that the entire reason he given the job was for continuity with what we had previously.

The problem is we're not doing the things we did previously! We're not doing hard play action with deep shots, we're not hitting on those 15-25 yard mid range pass plays. It's just check down after check down. For example, AJB is having his worst yards per catch of his career, his yards after catch is down to less than half of what it's been in his previous two years, and it's the same story with his yards per target.

Everyone wants to say it's only because we're throwing to scrubs, but even our star WR is having his worst year by far when he plays. Every part of our passing game is worst than it ever has been with this core group of players.

EDIT: Bonus stat for AJB - his TD% (TD/Targets):
2019: 9.5%
2020: 10.4%
2021: 3.8%
 
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Exactly, I don't think there is just one answer to the issues. But there have been issues with the passing game since the beginning of the year - we just glossed over them because Henry was putting up MVP stats on the ground.

Tannehill threw 10 TD's to 7 INT's in the first 8 games when AJB, Julio and Henry were all around in some combination. That's not great, but the OL was playing like crap then too. I think all parties deserve some share of the blame for this offense doing their best impression of the Bears or Jags offense.

I keep going back and forth on how to feel about Downing. Part of me wants to say that Downing shouldn't carry a lot of the blame because this is his first year as the OC. That always has its growing pains and issues, plus the insane number of injuries. But the other part of that story is that the entire reason he given the job was for continuity with what we had previously.

The problem is we're not doing the things we did previously! We're not doing hard play action with deep shots, we're not hitting on those 15-25 yard mid range pass plays. It's just check down after check down. For example, AJB is having his worst yards per catch of his career, his yards after catch is down to less than half of what it's been in his previous two years, and it's the same story with his yards per target.

Everyone wants to say it's only because we're throwing to scrubs, but even our star WR is having his worst year by far when he plays. Every part of our passing game is worst than it ever has been with this core group of players.

EDIT: Bonus stat for AJB - his TD% (TD/Targets):
2019: 9.5%
2020: 10.4%
2021: 3.8%
Maybe Vrabel needs to take the team for a run through Gettysburg...they need to come together soon or the playoffs will be short lived
 
I don't need stats to see that Brewer got absolutely killed on that 1st series. And then him, Davis, and Quess get raped the rest of the game.
 
Watched Tom Brady throw to horse shiot for 20 years, and still win. Same with Moon. It's the QB. Tannehill is average at his best.
 
Watched Tom Brady throw to horse shiot for 20 years, and still win. Same with Moon. It's the QB. Tannehill is average at his best.


That’s actually horseshit…. Both Brady and Moon had weapons ALOT better than Tannehill has had this season. It is one of the biggest lies/myths of all time that Brady never had offensive weapons. He did. He wasn’t running practice squad guys out there every game winning Super Bowls. Moon had great WRs. But it was also the scheme. Also people should quit comparing THill to HOF QBs. He is NOT a HOF QB, but he can be pretty good.
 
Tom Bradys regular season TDs as a Patriot.

Regular Season: 541 TDs to 77 different targets
  • Rob Gronkowski (78)
  • Randy Moss (39)
  • Julian Edelman (36)
  • Wes Welker (34)
  • James White (24)
  • Deion Branch (24)
  • Aaron Hernandez (18)
  • Daniel Graham (17)
  • Benjamin Watson (17)
  • David Patten (16)
  • Troy Brown (15)
  • Christian Fauria (13)
  • David Givens (12)
  • Chris Hogan (11)
  • Danny Amendola (10)
  • Kevin Faulk (10)
  • Mike Vrabel (8)
  • Phillip Dorsett (7)
  • Brandin Cooks (7)
  • Brandon LaFell (7)
  • Shane Vereen (7)
  • Martellus Bennett (6)
  • Jabar Gaffney (6)
  • Tim Wright (6)
  • Dion Lewis (5)
  • Josh Gordon (4)
  • Reche Caldwell (4)
  • Scott Chandler (4)
  • Aaron Dobson (4)
  • Bethel Johnson (4)
  • Brandon Lloyd (4)
  • Malcolm Mitchell (4)
  • Donte' Stallworth (4)
  • Kenbrell Thompkins (4)
  • Danny Woodhead (4)
  • Rex Burkhead (4)
  • Doug Gabriel (3)
  • Chad Jackson (3)
  • Antowain Smith (3)
  • Jermaine Wiggins (3)
  • Brandon Bolden (3)
  • N'Keal Harry (2)
  • Sam Aiken (2)
  • Kyle Brady (2)
  • Chris Baker (2)
  • Alge Crumpler (2)
  • Corey Dillon (2)
  • Tim Dwight (2)
  • Marc Edwards (2)
  • Donald Hayes (2)
  • Keshawn Martin (2)
  • Cordarrelle Patterson (2)
  • Brandon Tate (2)
  • Dwayne Allen (1)
  • Tom Ashworth (1)
  • LaGarrette Blount (1)
  • Matt Lengel (1)
  • Michael Floyd (1)
  • Larry Centers (1)
  • Cam Cleeland (1)
  • Andre' Davis (1)
  • Heath Evans (1)
  • Terry Glenn (1)
  • Michael Hoomanawanui (1)
  • Charles Johnson (1)
  • Laurence Maroney (1)
  • Mathew Mulligan (1)
  • Chad Ochocinco (1)
  • Patrick Pass (1)
  • David Thomas (1)
  • Brian Tyms (1)
  • Dedric Ward (1)
  • Matt LaCosse (1)
  • Ryan Izzo (1)
  • Elandon Roberts (1)
  • Antonio Brown (1)
  • Mohamed Sanu (1)
 
Postseason: 73 TDs to 28 different targets
  • Rob Gronkowski (12)
  • David Givens (7)
  • Danny Amendola (5)
  • Julian Edelman (5)
  • Deion Branch (4)
  • Chris Hogan (4)
  • Wes Welker (4)
  • Jabar Gaffney (3)
  • Benjamin Watson (3)
  • James White (3)
  • Aaron Hernandez (2)
  • Brandon LaFell (2)
  • Shane Vereen (2)
  • Mike Vrabel (2)
  • Phillip Dorsett (2)
  • Troy Brown (1)
  • Reche Caldwell (1)
  • Alge Crumpler (1)
  • James Develin (1)
  • Kevin Faulk (1)
  • Daniel Graham (1)
  • Bethel Johnson (1)
  • Brandon Lloyd (1)
  • Randy Moss (1)
  • David Patten (1)
  • Nate Solder (1)
  • Dion Lewis (1)
  • Danny Woodhead (1)
 
That’s actually horse****…. Both Brady and Moon had weapons ALOT better than Tannehill has had this season. It is one of the biggest lies/myths of all time that Brady never had offensive weapons. He did. He wasn’t running practice squad guys out there every game winning Super Bowls. Moon had great WRs. But it was also the scheme. Also people should quit comparing THill to HOF QBs. He is NOT a HOF QB, but he can be pretty good.
Super bowl 1/2 at least, I disagree. He really didn’t have weapons but he also wasn’t how the Patriots won. Brady was very pedestrian up until his 3rd/4th SB trip.

His D was really good for a lot of his trophies too.
 
Super bowl 1/2 at least, I disagree. He really didn’t have weapons but he also wasn’t how the Patriots won. Brady was very pedestrian up until his 3rd/4th SB trip.

His D was really good for a lot of his trophies too.


He had weapons. He wasn’t running practice squad guys out there. You cannot dispute that. Tannehill has been playing with guys who weren’t even on teams.
 
Troy brown, David patten, Charles Johnson. Sound pretty practice squad to me, maybe STers.


In 2001 NE 1st Brady Super Bowl,

Troy Brown had 1199 yards yards and made the Pro Bowl. Not Practice squad. not even close 944 yards the year before and 894 the year after, Played 14 years. He was a good player in the league.

David Patten…. Yea.. I’m not going to keep listing their stats, Siffice it to say you are wrong,


If Tannehill had these guys he would have way better talent on offense than he has had. Before you go the route of Brady made them better explain how ? Sure he made them better, but not 1200 yards in a season better. PLUS…. BRADY IS THE GOAT. Tannehill isn’t. But it doesn’t make him bad.

But pleases stop with the Brady didn’t have weapons BS. It’s just that. BS.
 
In 2001 NE 1st Brady Super Bowl,

Troy Brown had 1199 yards yards and made the Pro Bowl. Not Practice squad. not even close 944 yards the year before and 894 the year after, Played 14 years. He was a good player in the league.

David Patten…. Yea.. I’m not going to keep listing their stats, Siffice it to say you are wrong,


If Tannehill had these guys he would have way better talent on offense than he has had. Before you go the route of Brady made them better explain how ? Sure he made them better, but not 1200 yards in a season better. PLUS…. BRADY IS THE GOAT. Tannehill isn’t. But it doesn’t make him bad.

But pleases stop with the Brady didn’t have weapons BS. It’s just that. BS.
Troy Brown has 3 decent seasons to a 15 year career. He happened to have all 3 in 00’, 01’, 02, when he started doing anything at 29 years old (his 8th season) Today, titans fans complain that a career ST guy like Brown (and that’s what he was) sees the field as much as he does never mind becoming the #1 WR in NE.
That 1199 was good enough for 10th that year, his best year and he still only got 5 TDs,

Patten is what nick westbrook-Ikhine would be if he was the #2 guy for an entire season.

Brady threw for 2800 yards, 18/12 that year. People are furious that THill has the same numbers now and with the same caliber “weapons”.

2001, weapons werent there. It’s not BS that year.

2003 Troy brown (400 yards, much more on par for his career)
David givens, Deion branch, Daniel Graham, and Christian fauria
Kevin Faulk is one of the top WR with 440 yards

That is a loaded team of marginal talent to throw to.
That’s not weapons. That’s the goat QB making things happen with weak a$$ wr and TE.
He did it again in 2004 with the same “weapons”.
 
Troy Brown has 3 decent seasons to a 15 year career. He happened to have all 3 in 00’, 01’, 02, when he started doing anything at 29 years old (his 8th season) Today, titans fans complain that a career ST guy like Brown (and that’s what he was) sees the field as much as he does never mind becoming the #1 WR in NE.
That 1199 was good enough for 10th that year, his best year and he still only got 5 TDs,

Patten is what nick westbrook-Ikhine would be if he was the #2 guy for an entire season.

Brady threw for 2800 yards, 18/12 that year. People are furious that THill has the same numbers now and with the same caliber “weapons”.

2001, weapons werent there. It’s not BS that year.

2003 Troy brown (400 yards, much more on par for his career)
David givens, Deion branch, Daniel Graham, and Christian fauria
Kevin Faulk is one of the top WR with 440 yards

That is a loaded team of marginal talent to throw to.
That’s not weapons. That’s the goat QB making things happen with weak a$$ wr and TE.
He did it again in 2004 with the same “weapons”.

There are plenty of things happening that are not Tannehill's fault. No doubt about it. There are things Tannehill is doing as well though.

I know there are going to be problems with his "weapons". I know there have been times when Tannehill is throwing to a spot and the receivers run wrong routes. I am also sure that causes him to hesitate sometimes to make sure the receiver is going to be there. He cant hesitate. The line is not giving him the time to hesitate. He has to put the ball where it needs to go and if the receiver isnt there, then the receiver gets his ass chewed out.

Also, Tannehill's accuracy has been OFF. So many of his passes are high and behind. That kills any chance of yards after catch.
 
There are plenty of things happening that are not Tannehill's fault. No doubt about it. There are things Tannehill is doing as well though.

I know there are going to be problems with his "weapons". I know there have been times when Tannehill is throwing to a spot and the receivers run wrong routes. I am also sure that causes him to hesitate sometimes to make sure the receiver is going to be there. He cant hesitate. The line is not giving him the time to hesitate. He has to put the ball where it needs to go and if the receiver isnt there, then the receiver gets his ass chewed out.

Also, Tannehill's accuracy has been OFF. So many of his passes are high and behind. That kills any chance of yards after catch.
I understand what you’re saying about his accuracy, I.e. not in the catch and run spot, but overall, he’s above his normal %.

Career he’s 64%. 5 games this year he’s been less than that, only 1 under 60% (NE). Which includes he second highest for the season, 71.9, against Pit.
 
I understand what you’re saying about his accuracy, I.e. not in the catch and run spot, but overall, he’s above his normal %.

Career he’s 64%. 5 games this year he’s been less than that, only 1 under 60% (NE). Which includes he second highest for the season, 71.9, against Pit.
Yeah, most of them are catchable. We are just missing out on those 10 yard slants that turn into tds from the run after.
 
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