h4t said:
:applause: Yes! Finally someone who gets it. Now if we could just convince the others......
Puck said:
Lol...
OK, so either
a) you think that one game is enough evidence to decide which player we should spend millions of dollars and stake the future of our franchise on
or
b) you think that two sacks isn't considered being dominant from the linebacker position.
Either way, I think this conversation is finished.
The only way I'd advocate a trade down is if we are stockpiling to trade back up into the late 1st round with our 2nd pick as well.
We need an impact player on offense and defense with our first two picks. Rounds 3-7 may be great entertainment, but depth is not really what we need. The quality of some of our starters last year was not far removed from the backups, so between FA and our current guys, we have enough depth. We need 1-2 difference makers, and one of them neds to be a QB.
My ideal draft - Leinart at #3, Abdul Hodge/D'Qwell Jackson with our #2.
LBs will slip. Derrick Johnson was mentioned as a possible #1 overall at this time last year. (He went #15). The year before, Jonathon Vilma and DJ Wiliams were seen as top-10 picks, they went #12 and #17. The year before that, Boss Bailey and EJ Henderson were seen as top half of the first round material (they both went in the 2nd round).
This year, behind Hawk you have Chad Greenway, Demeco Ryans, Ernie Sims, Bobbie Carpenter, Abdul Hodge and D'Qwell Jackson all being picked as first rounders by various experts.
I'd be surprised if more than 3 went in the 1st round, and I think you'll find Hawk go around 10, Greewnway around 15-20 and Ryans or Sims around 25.
If we don't take a QB with our first pick, we are virtually forced to with our 2nd, and I think we'd be reaching for Jacobs or Croyle at the top of the 2nd. If we don't take a LB with our first, there are pleny of legitimate candidates to be had with our 2nd.
We need an impact player on offense and defense with our first two picks. Rounds 3-7 may be great entertainment, but depth is not really what we need. The quality of some of our starters last year was not far removed from the backups, so between FA and our current guys, we have enough depth. We need 1-2 difference makers, and one of them neds to be a QB.
My ideal draft - Leinart at #3, Abdul Hodge/D'Qwell Jackson with our #2.
LBs will slip. Derrick Johnson was mentioned as a possible #1 overall at this time last year. (He went #15). The year before, Jonathon Vilma and DJ Wiliams were seen as top-10 picks, they went #12 and #17. The year before that, Boss Bailey and EJ Henderson were seen as top half of the first round material (they both went in the 2nd round).
This year, behind Hawk you have Chad Greenway, Demeco Ryans, Ernie Sims, Bobbie Carpenter, Abdul Hodge and D'Qwell Jackson all being picked as first rounders by various experts.
I'd be surprised if more than 3 went in the 1st round, and I think you'll find Hawk go around 10, Greewnway around 15-20 and Ryans or Sims around 25.
If we don't take a QB with our first pick, we are virtually forced to with our 2nd, and I think we'd be reaching for Jacobs or Croyle at the top of the 2nd. If we don't take a LB with our first, there are pleny of legitimate candidates to be had with our 2nd.
At first I was wanting the Texans to trade down and pick Hawk, but his stock is slipping. My question is though, whats the big difference between picking a DB with an attitude problem with the sixth pick and picking who some are calling a can't miss LB with @ the sixth pick?
RollTide said:
I have no problem with Hawk
but my view is that we need to replace McNair first
Derrick Johnson slipped because of the teams selecting, not because of 'stock' or lack of talent - it was simply team need.
Jonathan Vilma had question marks about his size, and he needed the personall in front to have the effects he's having now.
Jonathan Vilma had question marks about his size, and he needed the personall in front to have the effects he's having now.
Puck said:
agreed and the person that i think needs to fill that position is vince young, and mcnair can take him under his wing and teach him a lot which would really benefit us in the long run, which is why we need to keep mcnair around for a little bit
Here's the skinny on quarterbacks drafted between 1998 and 2002. This is percentage of current starters (or at least in the mix to be starters) by round selected...
Round 1 - 58% (7/12)
Round 2 - 20% (1/5)
Round 3 - 17% (1/6)
Round 4 - 14% (1/7)
Round 5 - 0% (0/8)
Round 6 - 30% (3/10)
Round 7 - 0% (0/10)
This may not be exact, I've got a migraine today, but it should be pretty close. According to this, if you don't pick in the first, wait until the 6th for a Bulger/Brady/Hasselbeck. Haha.
Actually, to even it out, you should probably lump 5-7 together for about 11%.
Round 1 - 58% (7/12)
Round 2 - 20% (1/5)
Round 3 - 17% (1/6)
Round 4 - 14% (1/7)
Round 5 - 0% (0/8)
Round 6 - 30% (3/10)
Round 7 - 0% (0/10)
This may not be exact, I've got a migraine today, but it should be pretty close. According to this, if you don't pick in the first, wait until the 6th for a Bulger/Brady/Hasselbeck. Haha.
Actually, to even it out, you should probably lump 5-7 together for about 11%.
Like someone earlier pointed out, the more telling stat would be to take every QB drafted to see what percentage actually become starters in the league at some point in their careers.
One strategy that has worked for a number of teams is to snatch up lower pick backups after they've had a few years in the league like the guys you mention as sixth-round picks.
I'd like to see how many lower-round/undrafted backup QBs went on to become starters for multiple seasons. How many Jake Delhomme's have there been?
One strategy that has worked for a number of teams is to snatch up lower pick backups after they've had a few years in the league like the guys you mention as sixth-round picks.
I'd like to see how many lower-round/undrafted backup QBs went on to become starters for multiple seasons. How many Jake Delhomme's have there been?
The numbers ignore the primary reason that first round qb's have a higher percentage though...
When a team drafts a QB in the first round they have an obvious need for a starter there. Furthermore, a first round pick is much more likely to see playing time simply because of the investment made by management. Ryan Leaf started for several years, even though he was undeserving, for example.
When a team drafts a QB in the first round they have an obvious need for a starter there. Furthermore, a first round pick is much more likely to see playing time simply because of the investment made by management. Ryan Leaf started for several years, even though he was undeserving, for example.
That's pretty much what that percentage is. For example, from 1998 - 2002 there were 12 quarterbacks picked total in the first round and 7 of those guys are currently either a starter or in the mix to be a starter. Five were picked in the second round and one is a starter... and so on and so on....
Titans2008 said:
I agree, but I did back up to the 2002 draft. These guys have had at least 3 years in the league and I only counted current starters, not guys who have been benched.
I'm saying that if Tim Couch had been a 5th round pick (for example), he wouldn't have been getting a workout earlier by the Titans. First round picks get many more opportunities before they are discarded. Harrington, for another example, would have been benched long ago had they not already invested a large sum of their cap into him.
It is interesting when looking at that and the other statistics of where every starter was selected though.
Titans2008 said:
Yeah, I agree with you there. Three years might not be enough to let the first round name recognition wear off.
TitanJeff said:
Yeah, and this guy wasn't picked that low (4th I think), but I'd sure like to snatch him up... Seneca Wallace.
This draft is relatively deep and good talent can be found later in the draft. By trading down, the Titans would get more picks to fill the holes and would be able to make a run for the SB quicker.
Hypothetical trade scenerio
MN trades Daunte Culpepper to AZ for first round pick
MN trades their two first round picks (10 and 17) to the Titans for their 3 overall pick. The Vikings select Vince Young or Reggie Bush and the Titans draft 2 of the following Jay Cutler, DeAngelo Williams, Marcus McNeill, AJ Hawk, or Jimmy Williams. In the 2nd round the Titans draft the BPA of the position they didnt pick(ie the Titans pick QB and RB, then in the 2nd round they pick LB or OL)
Hypothetical trade scenerio
MN trades Daunte Culpepper to AZ for first round pick
MN trades their two first round picks (10 and 17) to the Titans for their 3 overall pick. The Vikings select Vince Young or Reggie Bush and the Titans draft 2 of the following Jay Cutler, DeAngelo Williams, Marcus McNeill, AJ Hawk, or Jimmy Williams. In the 2nd round the Titans draft the BPA of the position they didnt pick(ie the Titans pick QB and RB, then in the 2nd round they pick LB or OL)
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