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Love the signing, Tannehill and his agent worked a hell of a deal. Basically a 3 year, $96m fully guaranteed deal. But glad to have our QB locked in. Would have preferred a potential out after year 2, rather than after year 3.
 
Love the signing, Tannehill and his agent worked a hell of a deal. Basically a 3 year, $96m fully guaranteed deal. But glad to have our QB locked in. Would have preferred a potential out after year 2, rather than after year 3.
There technically is an out after year 2, we just have to exercise it before year 2 starts.
 
There technically is an out after year 2, we just have to exercise it before year 2 starts.

That's not an out. An out is a chance to escape the rest of the contract with minimal damage, ideally without owing anything, except for the signing bonus.

If we cut him between Year 1 (2020) and Year 2 (2021), then we have a massive $39.5m in dead cap in 2021. So, we won't be able to afford a quality QB to replace him, it cripples the team, and it makes no logical sense to cut him.

If we don't cut him in the off-season between Year 1 and Year 2, then Year 3 (2022) will become fully guaranteed. So, if we cut him between Year 2 and Year 3, then we will pay $39m ($29m base salary and remaining $10m of signing bonus money) in dead money in 2022 ... so, we will not be able to afford a quality QB to replace him, it cripples the team, and it makes no logical sense to cut him.

We only have a true out is between Year 3 and Year 4 (2023), because 2023's salary never becomes guaranteed and we would only pay the $5m of signing bonus money in dead cap.

The agent did the same thing that was done with Zeke's contract, where base salary comes fully guaranteed a year early. So, it becomes more expensive and more of a liability to cut a player than it is to just carry them on the roster.
 
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That's not an out. An out is a chance to escape the rest of the contract with minimal damage, ideally without owing anything, except for the signing bonus.

If we cut him between Year 1 (2020) and Year 2 (2021), then we have a massive $39.5m in dead cap in 2021. So, we won't be able to afford a quality QB to replace him, it cripples the team, and it makes no logical sense to cut him.

If we don't cut him in the off-season between Year 1 and Year 2, then Year 3 (2022) will become fully guaranteed. So, if we cut him between Year 2 and Year 3, then we will pay $39m ($29m base salary and remaining $10m of signing bonus money) in dead money in 2022 ... so, we will not be able to afford a quality QB to replace him, it cripples the team, and it makes no logical sense to cut him.

We only try out is between Year 3 and Year 4 (2023), because 2023's salary never becomes guaranteed and we would only pay the $5m of salary cap money in dead cap.

The agent did the same thing that was done with Zeke's contract, where base salary comes fully guaranteed a year early. So, it becomes more expensive and more of a liability to cut a player than it is to just carry them on the roster.
On the bright side, I think he’ll play well enough that JRob won’t need to look for “an out”.
 
Yeah he was dominant in so many fashions last year. With essentially the same weapons this year, I’m hoping he can maintain that elite level.
So many also forget that Art Smith was in his first year as a play caller. So Tannehill was a backup, had a rookie #1, and a rookie OC. But yet everyone thinks that his play was just a fluke and he HAS to regress.

No. He doesn't have to, and if you watch his game, it wasn't a bunch of short checkdown screens that were going the distance or guys running wide open due to some fancy offense that teams weren't prepared for. At times he was hitting guys in very tight windows, down the field, with pinpoint accuracy, and also seeing the field and distributing the ball to the open guy when it was there. He took what he was given and made the most of it.

Will probably seem like a weird comparison, but to me he looked like Alex Smith at KC, but with a much better arm. Smith was always known as a reserved, check-down charlie, with good athleticism and accuracy. Then he got to KC with Andy Reid and some of their playmakers and had an absolutely explosive season. Tannehill is in a very similar situation with weapons and a system that fits him, but he also brings an aboslute cannon for an arm.
 
So many also forget that Art Smith was in his first year as a play caller. So Tannehill was a backup, had a rookie #1, and a rookie OC. But yet everyone thinks that his play was just a fluke and he HAS to regress.

No. He doesn't have to, and if you watch his game, it wasn't a bunch of short checkdown screens that were going the distance or guys running wide open due to some fancy offense that teams weren't prepared for. At times he was hitting guys in very tight windows, down the field, with pinpoint accuracy, and also seeing the field and distributing the ball to the open guy when it was there. He took what he was given and made the most of it.

Will probably seem like a weird comparison, but to me he looked like Alex Smith at KC, but with a much better arm. Smith was always known as a reserved, check-down charlie, with good athleticism and accuracy. Then he got to KC with Andy Reid and some of their playmakers and had an absolutely explosive season. Tannehill is in a very similar situation with weapons and a system that fits him, but he also brings an aboslute cannon for an arm.
I say he regresses at least a little due to law of averages. Some of the numbers he put up last year were just ridiculous to the point I would expect every QB to regress a little.

I’m sure we could find all kinds of examples throughout history of QB putting up numbers that are just too far of an outlier to expect a repeat of any kind.

That said, I still think Tannehill is about to set Titans franchise records (I know, the Oilers history exists too but in this case I’m talking Justin post move).
I definitely can see the first 4K/30 TD season since Moon. I think those are realistic numbers and still be a “regression” based on the performance avg per game from last season.
He happened to lead the league in all avg per att/comp/adjusted yards per att and rating. History says it’s unlikely for him to repeat all of that.
 
I say he regresses at least a little due to law of averages. Some of the numbers he put up last year were just ridiculous to the point I would expect every QB to regress a little.

I’m sure we could find all kinds of examples throughout history of QB putting up numbers that are just too far of an outlier to expect a repeat of any kind.

That said, I still think Tannehill is about to set Titans franchise records (I know, the Oilers history exists too but in this case I’m talking Justin post move).
I definitely can see the first 4K/30 TD season since Moon. I think those are realistic numbers and still be a “regression” based on the performance avg per game from last season.
He happened to lead the league in all avg per att/comp/adjusted yards per att and rating. History says it’s unlikely for him to repeat all of that.
His TD% may fall some, but I don't actually see a huge dip coming for his completion metrics. Our offense isn't predicated on beating teams on scheme alone, and his stats came from an outlier season. It's based on physically overpowering other teams so that they have to bring extra guys in to stop the run, and then letting Tannehill drop in PA passes behind the D.

Until teams start heavily investing in nose tackles and heavy thumping linebackers in their front 7, we'll maintain that advantage. Teams will be stressed to contain the run, so Tannehill will continue to have very efficient passing numbers.

Russell Wilson continues to put up extremely efficient stats year after year because he's helped out by a heavy run game. Tannehill can do the same with a better run game than Seattle has.
 
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