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Rarely is the QB on the rookie deal the reason for the team’s success either.
We can see Mahomes has defied logic. Allen took a couple seasons at least.

SF is arguably the best team in the league right now. It’s hardly because of the play of Purdy (or Jimmy G earlier). They’re playing how a fully built team needs to play, smart and protect the ball. The rest of the team can win the game.

And that’s not to say Purdy is playing poorly at all. I have a hard time believing he’s going to keep those TD numbers up for an entire career. We’ll see how fans and media treat him when the law of averages happen. I think how that treatment goes is connected to when it happens too.
Niners would have success with Dobbs. That’s the best built team in the NFL in my opinion. We’ve always been lopsided one side or the other. Reason for us coming up short last few years.
 
Mahomes and Allen also have really solid teams, period.

But I agree on the part where a rookie deal QB playing lights out gives teams the best chance... The problem is that's a 2 sided deal...you have to get that QB at the time when the rest of the team is solid enough AND you have to get a rookie QB that comes in and plays great. That's not an easy combination to aquire.
They do, but at the same time swap mahomes/Allen out with Daniel Jones/Baker Mayfield and I don't think their success is nearly as sustained as it is now.

Of course, it's very tricky, but it's still basically a cheat code.
 
Rarely is the QB on the rookie deal the reason for the team’s success either.
We can see Mahomes has defied logic. Allen took a couple seasons at least.

SF is arguably the best team in the league right now. It’s hardly because of the play of Purdy (or Jimmy G earlier). They’re playing how a fully built team needs to play, smart and protect the ball. The rest of the team can win the game.

And that’s not to say Purdy is playing poorly at all. I have a hard time believing he’s going to keep those TD numbers up for an entire career. We’ll see how fans and media treat him when the law of averages happen. I think how that treatment goes is connected to when it happens too.
The sole reason? No but it certainly helps. It allows you to flesh out a good all around team while still having the most important piece in tact. Imagine if Trey Lance didn't snap his ankle and was mahomes-esque. The 9ers would be damn near unstoppable
 
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The sole reason? No but it certainly helps. It allows you to flesh out a good all around team while still having the most important piece in tact. Imagine if Trey Lance didn't snap his ankle and was mahomes-esque. The 9ers would be damn near unstoppable
They are now! I think they win it all! Games must be played though. Imo, the Niners best team out there/-/ undrafted QBs n all
 
Rarely is the QB on the rookie deal the reason for the team’s success either.
We can see Mahomes has defied logic. Allen took a couple seasons at least.

SF is arguably the best team in the league right now. It’s hardly because of the play of Purdy (or Jimmy G earlier). They’re playing how a fully built team needs to play, smart and protect the ball. The rest of the team can win the game.

And that’s not to say Purdy is playing poorly at all. I have a hard time believing he’s going to keep those TD numbers up for an entire career. We’ll see how fans and media treat him when the law of averages happen. I think how that treatment goes is connected to when it happens too.

Watson made the Texans pretty damn good before BOB turned the team into shit and before Watson's issues popped up. Burrow took the Bengals to the SB in year 2. Herbert turned the Chargers into a competitive team in years 1 and 2 and has made the playoffs in year 3. Jags aren in the playoffs in year 2 with Lawrence.

So I don't think it's as rare as you think. Those teams were pretty awful before drafting their franchise QBs. It's more rare that a team finds success in spite of their QB. Which is why over the last like 30-40 years, you'll rarely find a team that wins a SB with a sub par QB. And you'll rarely find a team that consistently makes the playoffs in spite of their QB play.

The right QB matters.
 
Alot more "elite" or franchise QBs than not..

Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath (MVP), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 5. John Unitas (Chuck Howley), 1 TD
Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese (Jake Scott), 1 TD
Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese (Larry Csonka), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw (Franco Harris), 1 TD
Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw (Lynn Swann), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler (Fred Biletnikoff), 1 TD
Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach (Harvey Martin & Randy White), 1 TDs
Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann (John Riggins), 2 TDs,
Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett (Marcus Allen), 1 TD
Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon (Richard Dent), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana (Jerry Rice), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana (MVP), 5 TDs
Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler (Ottis Anderson), 1 TD
Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs
Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs
Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
 
All these Vols homers think he is better than Tanne.
Myself and the other Vols don’t think Dobbs is better than Tannehill.
What we do think is that Dobbs is clearly better than Malik and maybe was better than Tannehill with two hurt ankles. A healthy RT is much better than Dobbs, no one is seriously debating that.

What I don’t understand is people excusing Malik and saying he will improve “he’s just a rookie”.
This dude sucks, and he will always suck.
 
Myself and the other Vols don’t think Dobbs is better than Tannehill.
What we do think is that Dobbs is clearly better than Malik and maybe was better than Tannehill with two hurt ankles. A healthy RT is much better than Dobbs, no one is seriously debating that.

What I don’t understand is people excusing Malik and saying he will improve “he’s just a rookie”.
This dude sucks, and he will always suck.
He’s a sucky rookie who may improve to less sucky.
 
Willis looked bad but I think he gets another season at least, our OL and WRs wouldn't help any QB...unless he was strictly a JRob pick and the new regime wants their own backup QB
 
Willis looked bad but I think he gets another season at least, our OL and WRs wouldn't help any QB...unless he was strictly a JRob pick and the new regime wants their own backup QB
If I’m the new GM, I keep him, though he’s third in line. If at the end of next season no major improvement, then he’s gone and I try again.
 
Willis needs to spend the entire offseason studying how to read defenses. He has the arm and running talent, but reading defenses is his achilles heel right now. His throwing will get better with an entire offseason of throwing to WR/TE routes he knows he will see a lot.
 
The sole reason? No but it certainly helps. It allows you to flesh out a good all around team while still having the most important piece in tact. Imagine if Trey Lance didn't snap his ankle and was mahomes-esque. The 9ers would be damn near unstoppable
I can imagine if Lance is another Mahomes, but there’s nothing to suggest thats even remotely the case.
currently, it looks like Purdy may be an upgrade basically by limiting the QB usage to a lesser volume and just playing safe.
 
Watson made the Texans pretty damn good before BOB turned the team into **** and before Watson's issues popped up. Burrow took the Bengals to the SB in year 2. Herbert turned the Chargers into a competitive team in years 1 and 2 and has made the playoffs in year 3. Jags aren in the playoffs in year 2 with Lawrence.

So I don't think it's as rare as you think. Those teams were pretty awful before drafting their franchise QBs. It's more rare that a team finds success in spite of their QB. Which is why over the last like 30-40 years, you'll rarely find a team that wins a SB with a sub par QB. And you'll rarely find a team that consistently makes the playoffs in spite of their QB play.

The right QB matters.
QB matters but it’s far from a be all end all.

some of your examples aren’t as cut and dry as a QB was added either.

texans had a 5 of 6 year run as an over .500 team. Then one down year gets them Watson for 2 more really good seasons. I’d say the team was decent before QB.

chargers were “competitive” albeit inconsistent, before Herbert, and really after.

jags are a 9-8 team that won a s**t division. They’re not that good now. Maybe Lawrence is what got them 3-4 more wins but it still isn’t a very good team.

I’d make more of a case that the Giants have turned around more because of Jones than the Jags because of Lawrence.

Still leaves other examples like the Seahawks getting Smith and the Lions getting Goff and turning their team direction around by tons.
Seahawks are a really unique example because they were crap with Wilson then improved greatly using Geno Smith. No one will make the argument Smith is a “franchise QB” and there’s no reason to think Wilson isn’t still one of the best QB despite his down year.
 
Yet elite QBs have primarily won the SB over the last 30-40 years. The Brad Johnsons, Trent Dilfers, and Joe Flaccos of the world are the exception, not the rule.
Exception would equal a much smaller percentage, but when it’s close to 30-40% (depending on whatever “elite” means) then it’s not just exception.

that also is dismissive of my earlier point where you are literally using just the SB winner as an example of a team capable of winning the SB.
Every year only one can win, which isn’t even always the best team, but multiple were right on the doorstep (I’d say very capable) but lost in the SB or Conf Champ.

If anything, because of the dominance of Brady, the “elite” QBs are wing only as many as “non-elite” if Brady is taken out.
 
Alot more "elite" or franchise QBs than not..

Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath (MVP), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 5. John Unitas (Chuck Howley), 1 TD
Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese (Jake Scott), 1 TD
Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese (Larry Csonka), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw (Franco Harris), 1 TD
Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw (Lynn Swann), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler (Fred Biletnikoff), 1 TD
Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach (Harvey Martin & Randy White), 1 TDs
Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann (John Riggins), 2 TDs,
Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett (Marcus Allen), 1 TD
Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon (Richard Dent), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana (Jerry Rice), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana (MVP), 5 TDs
Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler (Ottis Anderson), 1 TD
Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs
Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs
Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Hard to argue eras, but post 2005, we’ve seen huge upticks in QB production and the league rules pushing for more points and passing.
Since then, depending what you call “elite”,
it looks like this:
Elite:
Peyton, Brees, Big Ben, Rodgers, Brady x4, Wilson. 9 total.
Not elite:
Eli x2, flacco, foles, Stafford, Peyton (2015).
6 total.

that’s more than just “exception to rule” and also removes the SB loser, and both conf champ. losers.
I think we can agree that sometimes very good teams lose to very good teams meaning the loser of those games was also very “capable” of winning the SB and their QB should very much count in this same argument.
 
Hard to argue eras, but post 2005, we’ve seen huge upticks in QB production and the league rules pushing for more points and passing.
Since then, depending what you call “elite”,
it looks like this:
Elite:
Peyton, Brees, Big Ben, Rodgers, Brady x4, Wilson. 9 total.
Not elite:
Eli x2, flacco, foles, Stafford, Peyton (2015).
6 total.

that’s more than just “exception to rule” and also removes the SB loser, and both conf champ. losers.
I think we can agree that sometimes very good teams lose to very good teams meaning the loser of those games was also very “capable” of winning the SB and their QB should very much count in this same argument.
It doesn't completely remove the exception to the rule...maybe Eli, Stafford or the later Peyton weren't elite but they were or viewed as franchise QBs....we even tried to sign Peyton at that time

I agree remove Dilfer, Flacco, Foles and Johnson
 
It doesn't completely remove the exception to the rule...maybe Eli, Stafford or the later Peyton weren't elite but they were or viewed as franchise QBs....we even tried to sign Peyton at that time

I agree remove Dilfer, Flacco, Foles and Johnson
This actually presents part of the entire argument, subjectivity on definitions.

What is an “elite” QB?
What is a “franchise” QB?
What is a “game manager”?

All terms thrown around so easily in an effort to continue pushing the idea QB is the be all end all.

Edit: another subjective part of this is the lack of patience. People are so quick to label a player (not just QB) without giving enough time to actually grade. Happens often, but currently is the Lawrence grade. He’s got 1 s**t season (excuses of HC aside) and 1 decent season but some have already labeled him as the titans next Manning hurdle to overcome.

We also have AJ brown in Philly. He was paid a s**t ton to perform for 4 years. He had a great season. There’s still more time needed to determine winner/loser of that trade.
 
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