I think the Ravens will want to follow that same recipe - score early and control the clock. I have no idea what to expect in this game but a high score 30+ would not surprise me.
Ravens are much more healthy now that previous game and have Calais Campbell (who you know well) and Williams.
The Ravens are about as healthy as they have been all season...this is going to be a very physical game... I hate to say it but I think the Ravens are probably better than us in the trenches...
Turnovers and execution in the red zone will be the key to victory
Campbell was on jaguar teams Henry absolutely mauled.
It's hard to beat the same team 3 times in a row, sure. That's just because your odds of beating a good team are often 50-55% at best. If it's 50%, you only have a 12.5% chance of winning 3 times. Once you've already won 2 in a row, is the 3rd game actually any harder to win? Like does winning the 1st 2 make the 3rd game harder? I could see an argument that winning the 1st 2 makes you even more likely to win the 3rd.
Henry only ran for 133 with Campbell out last game vs Ravens, maybe he would have another 200 yd game if Campbell had played?
Not gonna happen, but how amazing would it be if Vrabel had the D running kinda vanilla all year, only to open the playbook and completely change the scheme now that it's playoffs. He was all about multiplicity, hiding the blitz, moving players around to make pre snap reads difficult, etc. I didn't see that as much this year. Again, not getting my hopes up, but this defense SHOULD be better than they have been.
Who knows? It's not like Campbell means Henry is automatically getting shut down. The Jags had some really good defenses when Henry went off for 200, with campbell playing
A few posters have mentioned this angle. But man thats risky. Have the players play in a new scheme, in the playoffs?!
Hey guys, try this new thing, but try it under more pressure than has been experienced this season.
I get training, but still.
Simmons
Jones
Vaccaro
Byard
Jackson
Butler
Hooker
Fulton
Landry
Evans
Yep it should better, some young guys, missed time but the talent is there
actually, if you have 50% chance of winning game one, you have independent variables making winning game two 50%, winning game 3 50%. If you’re looking at the series, there’s a 12.5% of same team winning. But the first two games have already occurred, so this is simply a one game series.
that’s how series stats works. Obviously each game has unique set of variables and factors. But my point is that you can’t combine predictive outcome and independent variables. The outcome of the prior two games has no statistical influence on the outcome of the third.
I mean I think we all feel that way in the back of our minds; I'm starting to lean towards sneaking out a win vs Baltimore but then lose the next round - which would be an accomplishment considering how awful this defense is. Think we can pull out one though with how good the offense is clicking and just a little extra luck needed on the defensive side - sure why not.
opcorn:That's exactly my point... People have said that it's hard to beat the same team 3 times and have brought up how it hasn't happened very often. It hasn't happened often because of the 12.5% I referenced (along with the fact that teams don't play each other 3 times often). My exact point was that I believe that the outcome of the 3rd game is independent of the previous 2.
However, I don't actually think it's completely independent. It's just dependent on factors that are impossible to consistently quantifiably capture. Like after you beat a team once, I believe there are certain scenarios where the other team is more likely to win the 2nd game (revenge, coaches that make better adjustments based on previous matchup, etc.). This is probably true for the 3rd game as well. In general, I still think these factors are probably overblown.
All of this BS about how hard it is to beat the same team 3 times in a row ... Most of you just happen to forget that the colts (Andrew Luck) had beaten us more then 3 times in a row. Heck he never lost a game against us.
I'm looking forward to this game that doesn't mean that we'll win or lose. It's the F**KING playoffs , you guys make all the excuses you want ...
Homer out !!!!!
I'm looking forward to this game that doesn't mean that we'll win or lose. It's the F**KING playoffs , you guys make all the excuses you want ...
Homer out !!!!!
If we're being honest, I'm just glad we won the division. The season was a success, and any wins beyond the regular season are icing on the cake.
AFC South Champions 2020
AFC South Champions 2020
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